Mexican exports to Cuba have dramatically decreased by 97.1% over the past year, plummeting from $127.3 million in June 2025 to a mere $3.6 million by June 2026, as reported by the Bank of Mexico. This staggering loss of over $123 million in sales within a single year highlights the severity of the decline.
The collapse is even more striking given the unprecedented boom that preceded it. Under the leadership of President Claudia Sheinbaum, monthly exports to Cuba surged from approximately $14 million in June 2024 to $127.3 million by June 2025, marking an astounding increase of roughly 799% in a year. Yet, by June 2026, the export flow dwindled to levels even lower than before the surge.
The Role of Oil in the Rise and Fall
The dramatic fluctuations in trade were largely driven by one sector: mineral products, particularly petroleum derivatives. In June 2025, Mexico exported about $113 million worth of these goods to Cuba, constituting nearly 89% of the total exports for that month. By the following year, this figure had plunged to just $76,000, a near-total decrease of 99.9%.
The turning point came when Pemex halted crude shipments in January 2026, just days before Donald Trump enacted Executive Order 14380. This order imposed threats of tariffs and secondary sanctions on countries supplying oil to the island. During the first quarter of 2026, Pemex reported a drastic reduction, shipping a mere 900 barrels per day to Cuba compared to the 17,200 daily barrels averaged in 2025. Although Trump lifted the additional tariffs in February 2026, crude shipments did not resume.
Widespread Decline Across Various Sectors
The drop in exports wasn't confined to the energy sector alone. Almost every category saw significant downturns from June 2025 to June 2026:
- Food and beverages: Fell by 97.4%, from $3 million to $84,000.
- Animal or vegetable fats and oils: Decreased by 98.3%, from $2 million to $46,000.
- Common metals and their products: Collapsed by 99%, from $1.5 million to $23,000.
- Transport equipment: Dropped 94%, from $632,000 to $38,000.
- Machinery, appliances, and electrical equipment: Fell 71%, from $1 million to $382,000.
- Vegetable products: Held up best with a 29.2% decrease, from $1 million to $847,000.
By June 2026, Mexico's primary export to Cuba was fertilizers of animal or vegetable origin, amounting to $819,000. The states leading in export activity were Nuevo León ($1.06 million), Mexico City ($979,000), and Yucatán ($180,000).
Heightened Sanctions and Cuba's Energy Crisis
The United States continued to exert pressure beyond January. On May 1, 2026, Trump signed Executive Order 14404, expanding secondary sanctions against entities tied to Cuba's regime, including the energy sector. Subsequently, in June, the State Department sanctioned CUPET, Cuba's state oil company, exacerbating the island's already critical energy crisis.
Humanitarian Aid Continues Despite Trade Collapse
Despite the commercial downfall, President Sheinbaum has upheld a policy of humanitarian assistance. Since February 2026, Mexico has dispatched over 4,800 tons of food, medicine, and solar panels to Cuba. In late July, Sheinbaum announced further aid deliveries but ruled out resuming oil shipments. "They are receiving oil from Russia, so we are focusing on other humanitarian support," she stated during a morning press briefing.
Frequently Asked Questions about Mexico's Export Decline to Cuba
What caused the sharp decline in Mexico's exports to Cuba?
The decline was primarily due to a halt in oil exports following Pemex's decision and U.S. sanctions that discouraged countries from supplying oil to Cuba.
How did the U.S. influence Mexico's export strategy to Cuba?
The U.S. imposed tariffs and sanctions that pressured Mexico and other countries to reduce their oil shipments to Cuba, leading to a significant impact on trade.
What sectors besides oil were affected by the export decline?
Sectors such as food and beverages, animal or vegetable fats and oils, common metals, transport equipment, and machinery experienced significant downturns.