Experts from Cuba and international organizations have raised alarms regarding the intensification of the El Niño phenomenon and its potential ramifications for Cuba. This situation is expected to bring a mix of drought, extreme heat, and a potentially harsh winter.
The Cuban publication Cubasí reported on Friday the warnings issued by island meteorologists and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The WMO forecasts an 80% likelihood that El Niño will strengthen between June and August 2026, with over a 90% chance of persisting through November.
Global models predict at least a moderate event, with the possibility of reaching significant intensity.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts anticipates ocean temperature anomalies of up to 3.3°C in the equatorial Pacific, surpassing the 2015-2016 record of 2.6°C.
The NOAA increased the probability to 69% that this will be the strongest event on record, with a 63% chance of reaching "very intense" status between November 2026 and January 2027.
The Triple Threat Facing Cuba
For Cuba, El Niño presents three simultaneous vulnerabilities: summer drought and extreme heat, reduced Atlantic cyclone activity, and a potentially hazardous winter in 2026-2027.
The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (Insmet) explained that El Niño conditions typically decrease Atlantic cyclone activity due to increased vertical wind shear.
However, experts caution that this reduction does not eliminate risk: Insmet estimates a 40% chance of a hurricane impacting Cuba and a 75% chance of a tropical storm hitting during the 2026 season.
Researcher Luis Lecha Estela from Insmet revealed to the official newspaper Granma that a mix of atmospheric and oceanic factors could lead to meteorological drought and water stress, with hotter-than-normal summers.
Meteorologist Yosmelvi Páez Cornell highlighted the phenomenon's paradox: "While we might experience one of the calmest cyclone seasons in decades due to El Niño, the winter season will be the complete opposite."
Páez Cornell warned that the Cuban winter could bring heavy rains and tornadoes, with increased frequency and intensity of cold fronts and severe storms, particularly in the west and center of the island.
Cuba's Fragile State Amid El Niño
These warnings come at a time of extreme vulnerability. By March 2026, drought affected 62% of the nation, with water reserves at only 38% of capacity, the lowest level since 2015.
In May, nearly 2.7 million Cubans lacked regular access to clean water, while about 10 million received it intermittently.
This precarious situation is compounded by the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall in eastern Cuba on October 29, 2025, as a Category 3 storm, damaging over 116,000 homes and affecting more than 3.5 million people in Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, Granma, Las Tunas, and Guantánamo.
Experts warn that El Niño's impact will not be limited to meteorological phenomena: prolonged heat, reduced water availability, and rainfall disruptions could affect agriculture, energy production, and public health on an island already suffering from years of structural decay.
Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli from WFLA-TV in Tampa cautioned, "I think we're going to see weather events we've never seen before in modern history."
Understanding El Niño's Impact on Cuba
What are the potential impacts of El Niño on Cuba's climate?
El Niño could lead to summer drought and extreme heat, reduced cyclone activity in the Atlantic, and a potentially severe winter with heavy rains and tornadoes.
How does El Niño affect hurricane activity in the Atlantic?
El Niño typically reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic due to increased vertical wind shear, which disrupts storm formation.
Why is Cuba particularly vulnerable to El Niño's effects?
Cuba is vulnerable due to existing drought conditions, low water reserves, and ongoing recovery from previous hurricanes, making it susceptible to the compounded effects of El Niño.