Back in September 2021, Mariela Castro Espín made a statement that takes on a vastly different meaning in the Cuba of 2026.
"No, no, they can't take away our ration book!" declared the daughter of Raúl Castro during a virtual book presentation at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
Mariela recounted how during the 2011 Guidelines discussions, many Cubans who initially criticized the Ration Book eventually came to defend it after calculating how much workers earned versus the cost of food outside the subsidized system.
The Future of the Ration Book in Question
Fast forward five years, and the question looms larger: what will happen to the ration book now?
The government has not officially announced its immediate removal, but it has approved an economic transformation targeting the core of the system established over six decades ago: the universal subsidy of certain foods.
From Subsidized Goods to Market Prices
In June, Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz explained to the National Assembly that one of the objectives of the new economic package is to transition from the regulated family basket to controlled sales without subsidies in the commercial network.
Marrero Cruz emphasized that the government isn't abandoning the regulated family basket. However, his explanation made it clear that the intent is to gradually reduce the scheme where certain products are sold at subsidized prices to the entire population, replacing it with targeted assistance and controlled sales at higher prices.
"We do not abandon, we do not renounce the regulated family basket, but current conditions have imposed limits with known impacts on the monthly delivery guarantees of products," acknowledged the prime minister under the leadership of Miguel Díaz-Canel.
In essence, the ration book may persist as a tool for control and record-keeping, though it might lose much of the economic function that justified its existence for decades.
Economic Struggles Intensify
The paradox lies precisely in Mariela Castro's words. Her argument in 2021 was that comparing Cuban incomes with food prices showed that the state couldn't remove the ration book. Five years later, that calculation is significantly more dire.
According to the latest available data from the National Office of Statistics and Information, the Consumer Price Index increased by 2.82% in June alone. Accumulated inflation during the first half of the year reached 12.24%, and the year-on-year inflation rate hit 18.27%.
The impact is felt most acutely where it hurts the most. Foods and non-alcoholic beverages accounted for 66.24% of the monthly inflation effect, with cooking oil prices rising by 14.79% in just one month. Pork, rice, and poultry were also among the products pushing prices higher.
Austerity Rhetoric vs. Reality
Mariela Castro is not the only member of families historically linked to power in Cuba who has used salary and food prices to present themselves as an ordinary Cuban amid the crisis.
In July 2024, Aleida Guevara March, daughter of Ernesto "Che" Guevara, stated she earned "four thousand and some pesos" as a state worker and admitted that income was insufficient to live on. She cited examples like a cheese priced at 7,000 CUP and a carton of eggs at 3,000, acknowledging that even the subsidized basic basket didn't allow her to make ends meet.
However, her solution to the massive disparities in purchasing power wasn't to expand food access opportunities. Criticizing small and medium-sized enterprises and their imports, she nostalgically referenced the shared scarcity of the Special Period: "Stop importing, after all, during the special period, we all had needs, we all faced shortages, but it was the same for everyone."
The Political Landscape and International Relations
The debate about the future of the ration book also coincides with an unprecedented political scenario since Mariela made those statements in 2021. The United States has intensified its pressure on the regime's economic and military core during 2026.
In June, the Treasury Department added Alejandro Castro Espín, Mariela's brother and Raúl Castro's son, and his son Raúl Alejandro Castro Calis to OFAC's list of Specially Designated Nationals. These measures involve blocking assets under U.S. jurisdiction and imposing stringent financial restrictions.
Mariela, for her part, has been affected since 2019 by a State Department designation barring entry to the U.S. for Raúl Castro and his children Alejandro, Deborah, Mariela, and Nilsa, related to severe human rights violations attributed to the former Cuban leader.
However, there is one family member not sanctioned by Washington: Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, "El Cangrejo," Raúl Castro's grandson. His exclusion is particularly significant because Rodríguez Castro has become one of the main communication channels between Havana and Washington.
Who Will Retain Access to Subsidies?
Amidst this political and economic reconfiguration arises a simpler question for millions of families: what will they be able to put on the table?
The Díaz-Canel government claims it doesn't intend to abandon the most vulnerable sectors. Its proposal is to shift from generally subsidizing products to directly subsidizing specific individuals, especially retirees, chronic patients, children, and officially classified vulnerable households.
The problem begins with those who don't fit into these categories. If products that have been symbolically priced through the ration book start selling in a controlled manner but without subsidies, numerous families will rely on salaries and pensions that are already inadequate in the face of the market.
And inevitably, Mariela Castro's words return. In 2021, she said that Cubans had done the math and concluded that the ration book couldn't disappear because those earning the least wouldn't have enough money to buy those foods outside the regulated system.
Today, prices are much higher, inflation continues to erode incomes, and even the government admits it can no longer sustain subsidies in the same way.
Therefore, the question may no longer simply be whether "they will take away the ration book." The question is what will remain within it, how much will need to be paid for what was previously subsidized, and how many Cubans will be deemed sufficiently impoverished by the state to retain some protection.
And there's another question still awaiting Mariela Castro's response: Does she still believe, in the Cuba of 2026, that "they can't take away our ration book"?
FAQs on Cuba's Economic Changes and Subsidies
What is the current status of the ration book in Cuba?
As of 2026, the ration book remains in use but its function is changing. The government is transitioning from a universally subsidized system to one with controlled sales without subsidies, focusing on targeted assistance for specific groups.
How has inflation affected food prices in Cuba?
Inflation has significantly increased food prices in Cuba, with the Consumer Price Index showing a notable rise. Essential items like cooking oil, pork, rice, and poultry have seen substantial price hikes, exacerbating the economic strain on families.
What groups will receive targeted subsidies in the new economic plan?
The new economic plan aims to provide targeted subsidies to specific individuals, including retirees, chronic patients, children, and households officially classified as vulnerable, instead of offering universal product subsidies.