Cuban historian and scholar Ivette García González recently shared an insightful analysis on Facebook, countering the pessimistic view regarding the Cuban people's resilience. She argues that protests on the island have been ongoing since July 2021.
In her piece titled "Social Protests: Another Shadow with Lights," García González continues a previous reflection from August 8, where she rhetorically questions whether those protesting in Cuba are "Swiss in Switzerland or Cubans in Cuba," highlighting that it is ordinary citizens acting under oppressive and survival conditions.
The academic, a doctor in Historical Sciences and former professor at the University of Havana, writes, "There is a tendency to focus only on the negative in the diagnosis: portraying Cubans as victims, compliant, or unable to strive for a future for their family and country."
Challenges and the Path Forward
García González identifies five limitations pointed out by her interlocutors: protests are led by a minority and normalcy resumes the next day; demands mainly revolve around water, electricity, and shortages, not rights and freedoms; there are no organized mobilizations; protests are spontaneous gatherings lacking coordination or leadership; and an unorganized uprising could lead to chaos.
She warns on the latter point, "Tomorrow, driven by emotions and the crisis, Cubans might initiate a larger social uprising than July 11. The conditions are set, but without organization and leadership, it would lead to chaos and anarchy, with everyone going their separate ways without clear direction."
Natural Progression of Protests
Despite these challenges, García González frames them as part of a natural escalation process: "The evolution of protests in Cuba over recent years is common in all struggles. It starts with demands for water (which is also legitimate) and progresses to demands for freedom."
Addressing the claim that protests dissipate the next day, she asserts, "It is logical for normalcy to return the day after a protest, especially at this stage. The key is that this 'normalcy' is actually abnormal (survival), and yet people continue to protest."
García González emphasizes that the responsibility to turn this discontent into a political strategy lies with the Cuban opposition, stating, "We shouldn't aim for another July 11th exactly as it happened in 2021. That event served its purpose and was heroic, showing the popular demand for freedom. [...] The opposition remains crucial."
A Critical Juncture Amidst Rising Tensions
This analysis comes during a period of sustained escalation. According to the Cuban Conflict Observatory (OCC), July 2026 recorded a historic high of 1,415 protests, complaints, and critical expressions, including 72 in-person protests, the highest monthly count since the organization began tracking. In June, Cubalex documented 319 repressive events and 253 demonstrations.
This record occurs against a backdrop of profound crisis: the Cuban economy has contracted by over 15% since 2020, with a projected 7.2% decline for 2026. Prisoners Defenders reported 1,306 political prisoners as of July 9, a historic record including 40 minors. Additionally, according to the National Office of Statistics and Information, 245,264 Cubans emigrated in 2025 alone.
In previous analyses, García González addressed the political situation: on July 26, she noted a deep contradiction between the Cuban Government and the Revolution it claims to represent. In May, she proposed a National Civic Movement based on non-violent struggle with demands for amnesty for political prisoners and unrestricted internet access.
"Social protests in Cuba may still have shadows, but their lights are also present for those willing to see them," concludes García González.
Understanding the Ongoing Protests in Cuba
What sparked the continuous protests in Cuba since July 2021?
The protests began as a response to worsening living conditions, including shortages of basic needs like water and electricity, and have been sustained by widespread discontent with the government's handling of the economy and lack of freedoms.
How do the current protests compare to those on July 11, 2021?
The current protests continue to build on the momentum of July 11, 2021, which marked a significant turning point in expressing mass dissent against the Cuban government. Today's protests are more frequent and widespread, indicating an ongoing struggle for change.
What are the main challenges facing the Cuban protest movement?
The movement faces challenges such as lack of organization, leadership, and coordination, as well as the risk of protests dissolving quickly without achieving long-term goals. The opposition plays a crucial role in addressing these challenges to sustain the movement.