Pedro Monreal Questions Cuban Government's Economic Expertise

The passing of former Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji on Wednesday in Beijing at the age of 97 prompted Cuban economist Pedro Monreal to raise a provocative question to the Cuban regime: "Which Cuban government official, from the rank of Vice Premier upwards, genuinely understands economics?"

Monreal shared his insights on Thursday through his Facebook page, "El Estado como tal," using Zhu's obituaries as a springboard to highlight the lack of technical leadership in Cuba's economic management.

The economist references a famous quote attributed to Deng Xiaoping in 1992: "The current leaders do not understand economics... Zhu Rongji is the only one who understands economics," which was said when Zhu was still Vice Premier.

Monreal points out that Zhu was not formally trained as an economist but was a technocrat whose reputation was built through practical experience. Zhu worked at the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, founded the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University in 1984, and served as both Mayor and Party Secretary of Shanghai.

Comparing Economic Strategies

Monreal highlights Zhu's tangible achievements, such as the "16 Measures" package launched in June 1993, which reduced China's inflation from a peak of nearly 24% in 1994 to between 0% and 1% by 1997-1998, all while maintaining reform and openness for a "soft landing" in the economy.

The stark contrast with Cuba forms the crux of Monreal's argument. While the Cuban regime cites Chinese reform as a useful benchmark, the 176-measure package approved in June 2026—organized into 23 axes—lacks any dedicated to macroeconomic stabilization.

According to Monreal, the term "inflation" appears only twice in the document and is not tied to macroeconomic balance, while "stabilization" is entirely absent.

Cuba's Economic Challenges

Monreal questions the logic behind omitting a macroeconomic stabilization axis in the 176-measure package and criticizes the Cuban government for failing to recognize that macroeconomic stabilization is crucial for structural transformations.

In 2026, Cuba faces its second major price policy failure in five years. The 2021 "Tarea Ordenamiento" led to an official inflation rate of 77.33%, far exceeding the projected 40%, with the regime eventually admitting its failure. The pattern repeats as the government removes price caps through Resolution 150/2026 from the Ministry of Finance and Prices, only for provinces like Villa Clara, Matanzas, Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Holguín to reinstate controls on essential goods within two months.

The underlying reality is stark. The minimum wage was increased to 3,210 pesos per month in July 2026, yet the basic basket is estimated at around 96,000 pesos monthly, a gap of about 30 times. Official inflation reached 18.27% year-on-year in June 2026, with oil prices soaring from approximately 1,500 pesos in April to over 4,000 pesos in August, peaking at 7,000 pesos per liter.

Monreal's Critique

Monreal describes this cycle as a "legal plunder" of Cuban workers, noting that workers' remuneration as a percentage of GDP fell to an average of 26.7% after the "Tarea Ordenamiento," compared to 35.6% recorded between 2003 and 2020.

Days earlier, Monreal had warned that the 176 measures accomplished only one thing: "proving they learned nothing," and described the return to provincial controls as the "new 'technical' trick" by the bureaucracy to shift the responsibility of correcting the central government's supposed "liberalizing" policy blunder to local authorities.

Monreal concludes his post with a challenging question: "Which Cuban government official, from the rank of Vice Premier upwards, disagreed with the 'consensus' that produced an economic transformation package without a macroeconomic 'axis'; where 'inflation' appears only twice, not linked to macroeconomic equilibrium, and where 'stabilization' is not mentioned even once?"