Roberto López Belloso, the head of the Uruguayan edition of Le Monde Diplomatique, has forecasted that the United States will rely heavily on economic "strangulation" and political pressure as a means to instigate change in Cuba. He dismissed the likelihood of a direct military intervention as the primary tool, although he noted that the threat of such an action remains a strong deterrent.
López Belloso shared his insights during an interview on "Paren el Mundo," a program by Uruguayan media outlet La Diaria. The discussion sparked significant debate after being shared on Instagram.
His comments come amid heightened pressure from the Trump administration on Havana, with over 240 sanctions in place. Recent reports suggest the strategy also involves exploiting divisions within Cuba's ruling elite.
"The mere threat of military intervention, especially after the January 3, 2026, intervention in Venezuela, makes that option powerful without even needing to utilize it," López Belloso stated, referencing the U.S. forces' capture of Nicolás Maduro.
The journalist believes Washington's true strategy lies elsewhere: "I think they will employ political means through economic strangulation."
A pivotal part of his analysis involves the role of the CIA director, who has reportedly visited Havana at least twice. López Belloso emphasized that John Ratcliffe conveyed a direct message to Cuba's military leadership: "He said, 'We want to count on the Cuban military and intelligence community in a future Cuba.'
This move was interpreted by the Uruguayan journalist as an attempt to quell internal resistance among those fearful of losing their positions or facing reprisals in a potential transition scenario.
Additionally, he drew a historical parallel with the U.S. policy of integrating Nazi regime figures post-Nuremberg Trials to leverage them during the Cold War. In Cuba's case, López Belloso suggested it would be more about convenience: neutralizing internal adversaries with dwindling options.
Regarding potential interlocutors, López Belloso pointed to Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo" and grandson of Raúl Castro, as the figure Washington might be seeking akin to Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela.
However, he cautioned that reports of dissatisfaction within Cuba's leadership over this figure's rising prominence could have prompted the calming message from the CIA.
On the topic of Marco Rubio, López Belloso described him as the chief enforcer of Trump's Cuba policy, deeply influenced by his parents' exile. Yet, he noted that such exposure makes Rubio a potential target.
López Belloso speculated that "it wouldn't be far-fetched to consider Rubio a loser, because Trump will never present himself as a loser" if the Cuban crisis remains unresolved by the end of Trump's second term.
He also pointed out that Rubio faces pressure from within the MAGA movement, competing with JD Vance to become the successor Trump ultimately supports.
Despite acknowledging that Washington "holds the best cards in this game," López Belloso concluded that Cuba won't be an easy conquest. "Cuba is not Venezuela," he asserted.
Concerning the island's internal situation, the journalist referenced reports from Cuban independent journalism to capture the public's sentiment: "The average Cuban just wants the nightmare to end once and for all."
Understanding U.S.-Cuba Relations
What approach is the U.S. likely to take towards Cuba?
The U.S. is expected to use economic pressure and political maneuvers to push for change in Cuba, rather than direct military intervention.
Who is considered a key figure in the potential U.S.-Cuba dialogue?
Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, also known as "El Cangrejo" and grandson of Raúl Castro, is seen as a potential key figure in the dialogue.
How has the Trump administration addressed Cuba?
The administration has implemented over 240 sanctions against Cuba, aiming to exploit internal divisions within the Cuban leadership.
What historical parallel did López Belloso draw regarding U.S. strategy?
He compared the strategy to the U.S. incorporating former Nazi figures after the Nuremberg Trials to use them during the Cold War, suggesting a similar approach in Cuba.