The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported on Saturday that it is monitoring the potential development of two systems in the tropical Atlantic over the coming week. However, the likelihood of either system evolving into a cyclone remains low.
Current Atmospheric Conditions
In its afternoon update, the NHC explained that "the development window is narrow due to strong upper-level winds in the atmosphere near" both systems. These conditions hinder their organization into tropical cyclones.
Details on the Tropical Waves
The first system is a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the central tropical Atlantic. It has a near 0% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance over the next week.
The second system is another tropical wave expected to emerge from the west coast of Africa by Tuesday. Its development prospects are similarly low, with a near 0% chance in the next 48 hours and a 30% chance over the next seven days.
Tracking and Impact
Both disturbances are moving westward across the tropical Atlantic. The NHC's official graphic marks them in yellow, indicating probabilities below 40% and no immediate threat to land within the seven-day period.
2026 Hurricane Season Overview
This announcement comes amidst an unusually quiet 2026 hurricane season so far, with only two named storms in the Atlantic—Arthur and Bertha—neither of which reached hurricane strength.
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy for the Atlantic is approximately 75% below average for this time of year, according to NHC data. The primary factor reducing activity is El Niño, which increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and Caribbean, thus hindering cyclone formation and intensification.
NOAA's Seasonal Outlook
The NOAA updated its seasonal outlook on Friday, maintaining the forecast for a below-normal season: predicting between seven and 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes, and up to two major hurricanes. The agency estimates a 75% chance that 2026's cyclone activity will be below average.
Preparedness in Cuba
Despite the relative calm, the NHC has warned that August historically marks the start of the peak activity period, with the climatological peak of the Atlantic season around September 10. Therefore, the highest risk period is yet to come.
In Cuba, the regime has urged the public to stockpile food and medicine in early August, anticipating the possibility of a system impacting the island. This aligns with the forecast from the Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET), which predicts a 40% chance of at least one hurricane affecting the country during the season.
Frequently Asked Questions About Atlantic Tropical Systems
What factors are inhibiting cyclone activity in the Atlantic this season?
The primary factor is El Niño, which enhances vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and Caribbean, making it harder for cyclones to form and strengthen.
What are the chances of the current tropical systems developing into cyclones?
The first tropical wave has a 0% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance over the next week. The second wave has similar chances, with 0% in 48 hours and 30% over seven days.
How has the hurricane season been so far in 2026?
The 2026 hurricane season has been notably quiet, with only two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, neither of which became hurricanes.