Las Tunas Faces a Demographic Crisis as Youth Exodus Continues

The official Communist Party newspaper in Las Tunas, Periódico 26, has published a rare and stark demographic analysis that lays bare the severe population decline in this eastern Cuban province. The report candidly acknowledges a troubling reality: "the youth are leaving," and with their departure, the demographic future of the region dims.

Authored by journalist István Ojeda Bello and grounded in data from the 2025 report "Demographic Indicators of Cuba and Its Territories" by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), the article reveals that Las Tunas ended 2025 with a population of 463,112, a sharp drop from its "historical peak" of 537,221 in 2016. In just eight years, the province has erased all growth accumulated over the past three and a half decades.

The state-run newspaper uses a powerful comparison: "It's as if roughly all the residents of Jobabo and Puerto Padre vanished. That illustrates the scale of the population loss in this eastern Cuban province over the last eight years."

The Impact of Recent Years

The most recent three-year period has been the hardest hit. Between 2022 and 2025, Las Tunas saw over 65,000 residents leave, equivalent to completely emptying the municipalities of Colombia and Majibacoa. Official ONEI data indicates that Cuba ended 2025 with a population of just 9,434,593, though independent experts estimate the figure to be under nine million.

The analysis from Las Tunas challenges what it terms the "mirage of numbers." Although the decline rate in Las Tunas is lower than the national average, this doesn't indicate a healthier demographic trend. The official newspaper employs a striking metaphor: "It's like a sick person losing weight not through a balanced diet, but because of a leg amputation. The province 'improves' its aging indicators at the cost of losing its youngest residents, a temporary relief that masks a severe structural issue."

Migration's Role in Population Decline

The data from 2023 and 2024 reinforce this view. Approximately 12,000 people left the province during these years, and deaths exceeded births by around 2,600. "Migration is thus four times more significant than natural growth in the loss of inhabitants," the analysis concludes.

In 2025, Cuba recorded a mere 68,051 births, the lowest number since modern statistical records began, compared to 134,354 deaths, resulting in a negative balance of over 66,000 people, according to the Center for Demographic Studies (CEDEM) at the University of Havana.

Who Is Leaving and Why It Matters

A particularly telling statistic, as noted by Periódico 26, highlights who is leaving: Las Tunas shows a sex ratio of 1,009 men for every 1,000 women, an anomaly in a country where women typically live longer. This indicates female emigration exceeds that of males. "The departure of women of childbearing age is especially detrimental, as they significantly influence birth rates. In 10 to 15 years, this will result in declining births and accelerated aging," warns the state-run newspaper.

This phenomenon is part of an unprecedented national demographic crisis. CEDEM researchers have pointed out that over 50% of emigrants are under the age of 35. President Miguel Díaz-Canel, in a recent interview, downplayed the national migration issue, stating, "Emigration is a worldwide problem."

The projections from the Las Tunas state media are grim: if current trends continue, the province "could fall below 400,000 inhabitants before 2030... A half-century leap backward in just one generation. This isn't an apocalyptic prediction; it's a straightforward mathematical projection," the analysis concludes, summarizing the structural tragedy with a poignant statement: "Aging isn't the worst enemy; it's that those who could be tomorrow's parents aren't staying."