Miguel Cossio, the Chief Operations Officer at the American Museum of the Cuban Diaspora in Miami, shared his insights on the potential pathways to the end of Cuba's regime during the "Infinite Wars" program on the @thehavanafiles account.
His analysis gains significance amid ongoing negotiations between Washington and Havana. Cossio outlines four key scenarios, with a fifth being a blend of these possibilities.
Avenues for Change: Negotiation and Internal Fractures
The first scenario involves negotiations with the Trump administration, which Cossio identifies as the most immediate possibility. "Change could come through a US-Cuba negotiation," he stated. Back in February 2026, Trump confirmed discussions with "the highest levels" of the Cuban government, expressing optimism about reaching an agreement. By May, he boldly declared, "I can fix Cuba."
Another possibility is an internal regime fracture, drawing parallels to Romania. Cossio notes that "Romania's own intelligence apparatus took out Nicolae Ceaușescu." A similar abrupt internal split could occur in Cuba without any visible external signs.
Public Uprising and Military Intervention
Popular uprising is also a conceivable scenario, reminiscent of the massive protests on July 11, 2021, when thousands of Cubans took to the streets. However, Cossio cautions that "the Castro regime has taken precautions" with new penal codes and communication laws to criminalize dissent or activism on social media.
The fourth scenario, a U.S. military intervention, wasn't detailed in the published statements but has been extensively discussed by other analysts.
Combining Scenarios and the Role of Succession
The fifth scenario is a fusion of the previous scenarios, potentially triggered by the death of Raúl Castro, sparking a succession crisis. These scenarios were shared by the Cuban Diaspora Museum on Instagram, hinting at a broader conversation on history, strategy, and the future challenges for Cuba.
Cossio, a seasoned journalist and media executive, has led the museum's operations since May 2025 and has become an authoritative voice in discussions about Cuban transition.
The Museum as a Hub for Transition Dialogue
Cossio's analysis comes shortly after the museum hosted the "Initiative for a Democratic and Economic Alternative for Cuba" forum on July 22, 2026, focusing on the costs of rebuilding the island post-transition.
Figures from the forum highlight the scale of the challenge. Stabilization in the first 180 days would cost between $180 million and $270 million, according to economist Rafael Romeu. Restoring the electrical system might require $5 billion to $8 billion over three to five years, as estimated by expert Jorge Piñón. The total reconstruction could range from $275 billion to $375 billion over a decade or more.
Negotiation remains the most debated scenario in these forums, but it faces a significant hurdle: Washington's progress is contingent upon Díaz-Canel's departure. However, the regime opposes any externally imposed changes to its political system.
Opposition leader José Daniel Ferrer stated in May 2026 that the regime's end is near, with the United States playing a crucial role in this outcome.
This assessment aligns with Miguel Cossio's analysis of the potential role the Trump administration could play in any of the possible scenarios for change in Cuba.
Analyzing the Possible Changes in Cuba
What are the main scenarios for change in Cuba according to Miguel Cossio?
Miguel Cossio outlines four main scenarios: negotiation with the Trump administration, internal regime fracture, popular uprising, and U.S. military intervention. A fifth scenario combines elements of the others.
How has the Cuban regime prepared for potential uprisings?
The Castro regime has implemented a new penal code and communication laws designed to criminalize dissent and activism on social media, aiming to suppress potential uprisings.
What are the estimated costs for rebuilding Cuba post-transition?
The stabilization phase could cost between $180 million and $270 million in the first 180 days, restoring the electrical system might require $5 billion to $8 billion over three to five years, and total reconstruction could range from $275 billion to $375 billion over 10 to 15 years.