Hermenegildo Altozano, a partner at the international law firm Pinsent Masons and an expert in investment law in Cuba, predicts that the island could become the leading hotel market in the Caribbean if it undergoes a political and economic transformation.
Altozano's insights, shared during an interview on the "Hotel Investment" Podcast hosted by consultant Ivar Yuste, are particularly significant following the simultaneous exit of Meliá, Iberostar, and Barceló on July 21.
The Storm Before the Calm
Altozano distinguishes between the current crisis and the enduring structural value of the island: "Cuba has always been there. It has a fairly decent hotel infrastructure, especially for the Caribbean, which can be revitalized in due time."
He uses a vivid analogy to describe the current situation: "I like to use the hurricane image: the key is to take shelter until the storm passes."
The statistics underscore the severity of the situation. Cuba's visitors dropped from 4.7 million in 2018 to just 1.81 million by 2025, with hotel occupancy plummeting to 18.9%. In 2026, the decline exceeds 58% compared to the already dismal previous year.
U.S. Market: The Future Frontier
For Altozano, the real discussion lies in the future rather than the present. His outlook is clear: "Cuba will become the main hotel market in the Caribbean; naturally, the U.S. will take the lead."
The expert elaborates that the Spanish dominance—approximately 40% of the market, an unusual concentration globally—was due to a specific political scenario: "Spanish hotel chains developed in Cuba because, for over sixty years, Americans couldn't set foot there."
He argues that this will reverse as conditions change, paving the way for chains like Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, or Wyndham to enter the market.
The Role of the Cuban Diaspora
Another crucial aspect of the analysis is the role of the Cuban community abroad, particularly entrepreneurs based in Miami.
"Cubans living abroad think: this is ours. Spaniards, French, and Canadians might be here, but we should be too," the lawyer explained.
This perception, combined with geographical proximity, makes Altozano anticipate a significant wave of investment from Florida.
"The entry of real estate developers from Miami into Cuba seems quite evident. I believe it's the natural course," he stated.
Real Estate: Catalyst for Recovery
Beyond the hotel sector, Altozano identifies the real estate market as the primary engine for future recovery: "Cuba's solution will be the real estate sector. It can attract substantial investment immediately."
Regarding the 5,911 claims certified by the U.S. Foreign Claims Settlement Commission—valued at $1.851 billion in principal—the expert doesn't see them as an insurmountable obstacle.
He believes that "a comprehensive compensatory agreement will likely be reached," similar to those with Spain, France, or the United Kingdom.
Financial Woes and European Inaction
Altozano also highlights the financial challenges faced by hotel chains before their departure: "Some hotel chains haven't received payments owed to them for a long time."
He sums up the paradox: "They've established financial barriers, violating international agreements."
The lawyer also criticized the inaction of Brussels: "The European Commission has done absolutely nothing," he lamented, noting that the Blocking Statute 2271/1996 provided legal tools for reciprocity that were never activated.
Meanwhile, tourists continue to choose alternative destinations for practical reasons.
"Why would I go to Cuba when there are blackouts and no taxis, when I can go to the Dominican Republic or Cancun?" Altozano asked rhetorically, encapsulating the plight of a sector he still sees as having the potential to lead the Caribbean.
FAQs on Cuba's Hotel Industry Transformation
How might political change impact Cuba's hotel industry?
Political change in Cuba could open up opportunities for significant investment, likely making it a leading hotel market in the Caribbean, particularly with potential U.S. involvement.
What role could the Cuban diaspora play in this transformation?
The Cuban diaspora, especially those in Miami, could be key investors in the island's redevelopment, driven by a sense of ownership and geographical proximity.
Why are tourists choosing other destinations over Cuba?
Tourists are opting for other destinations due to practical issues in Cuba, such as power outages and lack of transportation, making places like the Dominican Republic and Cancun more appealing.