The Electric Union (UNE) has forecasted a significant power shortfall of 2,260 MW during Thursday night's peak hours, with available capacity dwindling to just 970 MW against an anticipated demand of 3,200 MW.
The official statement from the organization painted a grim picture for Wednesday night. At 10:50 PM, power outages reached a staggering 2,162 MW, impacting every province across the nation continuously throughout the day and into the early hours.
Lázaro Guerra Hernández, the Director General of Electricity at the Ministry of Energy and Mines, corroborated these dire projections in an interview with the state-run Canal Caribe.
"We are expecting high levels of service disruption throughout the day, hitting 2,260 megawatts at peak demand. The operation of the system is extremely challenging," Guerra Hernández stated.
Early Thursday morning, the national grid's generation capacity plummeted to just 890 MW, with power shortages nearing 1,800 MW by dawn. By midday, the shortfall was expected to reach 1,500 MW, escalating to 2,260 MW during the evening's peak consumption hours.
Widespread Power Plant Failures
The list of malfunctions in thermoelectric plants is lengthy. Units 5 and 6 at the Máximo Gómez Thermoelectric Plant (Mariel), Units 1 and 2 at the Ernesto Guevara De La Serna Plant (Santa Cruz), Unit 6 at the Diez de Octubre Plant (Nuevitas), Unit 2 at the Lidio Ramón Pérez Plant (Felton), and Unit 3 at the Antonio Maceo Plant (Renté) are all out of service due to failures.
Additionally, several units are undergoing scheduled maintenance at plants in Santa Cruz, Renté, and Nuevitas.
Guerra Hernández noted that only the Unit 2 of Santa Cruz, providing 80 MW, is expected to be operational during the day. The Unit 5 at Mariel is slated for a hydraulic test and might become operational "by the end of the night, but not in time for peak demand."
Impact of Distributed Generation and Solar Power
Distributed generation is also at a standstill: 106 power stations are offline due to fuel shortages, as are the Regla and Melones barges, and the Central Fuel stations at Mariel and Moa.
The official outlined the structural causes of the crisis, attributing it to a combination of fuel shortages and numerous generating units being offline due to either breakdowns or maintenance, reducing availability and causing extensive disruptions throughout the day.
On the solar front, the country's 54 photovoltaic parks generated 5,255 MWh on Wednesday, reaching a peak output of 863 MW, which helps alleviate the situation during daylight hours. However, they fall short in addressing the nighttime deficit when the crisis worsens.
This ongoing situation is part of a rapid deterioration that has seen at least five total system blackouts so far in 2026, with the most recent on July 14, taking until 7:00 AM on July 15 to fully restore.
On July 8, a record deficit of 2,341 MW was recorded, the largest in the country's history, a benchmark that Thursday's crisis threatens to approach once more.
Understanding Cuba's Power Crisis
What is causing the power crisis in Cuba?
The crisis is primarily due to a combination of fuel shortages and multiple generating units being out of service for repairs or maintenance, significantly reducing electricity availability.
How are solar power and distributed generation affected?
While solar power contributes during daylight hours, it is inadequate for nighttime demands. Distributed generation is severely impacted by fuel shortages, with many facilities offline.
What is the forecast for Cuba's electricity supply?
Cuba's electricity supply faces ongoing disruptions with expected shortages of up to 2,260 MW during peak hours, with limited improvement anticipated in the near future due to persistent structural issues.