An analysis published Wednesday in the Spanish newspaper ABC suggests that the Trump administration's lack of democratic demands on Venezuela could persuade the Cuban regime to negotiate a similar agreement with Washington, one that doesn't require immediate political conditions.
Emili J. Blasco, a journalist specializing in Latin America, argues that the fates of Cuba and Venezuela have been intertwined for nearly three decades, continuing to shape the current geopolitical landscape.
"The Cuban and Venezuelan issues go hand in hand. They have for the better part of thirty years, and they still do," Blasco writes.
The core argument of Blasco's analysis revolves around a precedent that Havana is closely watching: In March 2026, Washington formally recognized Delcy Rodríguez as a representative of the Venezuelan government without demanding a democratic electoral timeline, despite the collapse of the chavista state.
Blasco believes this decision sends a lenient signal to the Cuban regime. "If Washington had imposed an electoral timeline on Delcy Rodríguez, Havana would be more resistant to American pressure," he notes.
This analysis coincides with the fifth anniversary of the July 11, 2021 protests, the largest demonstrations against the Cuban regime in history, which were brutally suppressed without leading to any real reforms.
Blasco outlines missed opportunities: the retirement of Fidel Castro in 2008, that of his brother Raúl, and the July 11 protests, when the regime could have responded with openness but instead chose stagnation and repression.
The economic package of 176 measures approved in June 2026 includes lifting the limit of 100 workers per company, authorizing private banking, allowing expatriate Cubans to invest on the island, establishing foreign fast-food chains, and opening foreign currency accounts without prior authorization.
However, Blasco warns that this package was only approved under U.S. pressure, not from the regime's own conviction, and may end up as "just a list of good intentions."
Another red flag identified by the analyst is the role of the Cuban negotiator. Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro, known as "El Cangrejo," has been leading informal negotiations with Washington since February 2026 without holding any public office.
Blasco openly questions this: "Who is really in charge in Cuba?" adding that "the explanations for his lavish lifestyle and personal spending are grotesque," which in his view, highlights the regime's insincere efforts to win over its people.
The historical context emphasized by Blasco is crucial: Since 2000, chavismo has transferred over $21 billion in oil to Cuba, sustaining the Cuban regime after the Soviet collapse.
Now, with chavismo undergoing a transformation under Trump's influence, the Cuban regime might see this model as a reflection of their own potential path forward.
"Chavismo propped up a financially struggling Cuban regime after the USSR's collapse, and a 'chavismo' reconfigured and backed by Trump could serve as a blueprint for a Cuban regime following a similar path," the analyst concludes.
Key Questions on Cuba's Potential Deal with the U.S.
Why is the Cuban regime interested in negotiating with the U.S.?
The Cuban regime may see an opportunity to negotiate with the U.S. without immediate political conditions, similar to the strategy applied to Venezuela.
What role does Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro play in the negotiations?
Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo," is leading informal negotiations with Washington, despite not holding any public office.
How has chavismo supported the Cuban regime historically?
Chavismo has provided Cuba with over $21 billion in oil since 2000, helping sustain the regime after the Soviet Union's collapse.