Economist Elías Amor Bravo has raised concerns about the runaway inflation in Cuba, pointing to official figures from the first half of 2026 that reveal a persistent rise in prices. Despite this alarming trend, the Cuban government has yet to implement effective strategies to curb inflation.
According to data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed by 2.82% in June alone, bringing the total increase for the semester to 12.24%. The annual rate has now reached 18.27%, almost six percentage points higher than in January.
The most significant contributors to this surge are food and transportation, two categories that heavily impact the daily expenses of Cuban households.
The food and non-alcoholic beverages index hit 1,010.67 points, using 2010 as the base year (100), indicating that prices in this category are now approximately ten times higher than they were back then.
Food prices jumped by 4.29% in June, nearly double the overall average, with individual increases affecting Cuban tables directly: cooking oil saw a 14.79% spike, while pork prices rose by 6.76%.
Transportation and Service Costs Soar
Transportation costs rose by 20.5% in the first half of the year, marking the steepest increase among all CPI components, with an annual rate of 23.94%. Specific hikes include a 10.79% rise in intercity truck or van fares, an 8.29% increase for intercity taxis, and an 8% rise for urban taxis.
Restaurants and hotels experienced the highest annual inflation of all sectors, at 26.54%. Meanwhile, alcoholic beverages and tobacco had the largest monthly increase in June, at 6.11%.
Out of the twelve CPI components, ten have shown accelerated inflation since January. Only the health sector and alcoholic beverages and tobacco have seen a slowdown.
Bleak Economic Outlook
Amor Bravo is blunt in his assessment: "The authorities have failed to implement necessary economic policies to tackle these inflationary processes, underscoring the severe crisis facing Cuba's economy."
He further predicts that if the current trend continues, Cuba's inflation could end the year between 40-50%, placing it among the highest in Latin America and the Caribbean: "With the first half of 2026 behind us and the authorities' inability to control inflation, price increases of 40-50% by year's end seem likely."
The broader economic picture is equally dire. Cuba's economy contracted by 5% in 2025 and has shrunk by 15% since 2020, according to the Center for Cuban Economic Studies.
Fiscal deficits exceed 12% of GDP and are being financed through monetary issuance, directly fueling the price spiral.
Independent economists like Pedro Monreal and Pavel Vidal estimate that real inflation, including the informal market, is around 70% annually, far surpassing the figures reported by ONEI.
In 2025, the average Cuban salary was 6,930 pesos, equivalent to just five dollars per month at the informal exchange rate.
Understanding Cuba's Inflation Crisis
What is causing the high inflation rate in Cuba?
The primary drivers of Cuba's high inflation rate are rising costs in food and transportation, compounded by a lack of effective governmental policies to address these issues.
How does the current inflation rate compare to previous years?
The inflation rate has increased significantly compared to previous years, with the annual rate reaching 18.27% in 2026, nearly six percentage points higher than in January.
What are the economic implications of ongoing inflation in Cuba?
Continued inflation could lead to severe economic instability, further contraction of the economy, and place Cuba among the highest inflation rates in Latin America and the Caribbean.
What is the predicted inflation rate for the end of 2026?
If current trends persist, inflation could reach between 40-50% by the end of 2026, according to economist Elías Amor Bravo.