Cuba is grappling with an unprecedented demographic crisis in its modern history. According to data shared by researchers from the Center for Demographic Studies (CEDEM) during the World Population Day discussion held on Saturday, a staggering 50% of those who left the island by the end of 2024 were young individuals and children under the age of 35.
This statistic is particularly alarming as this age group constitutes only 38.4% of the total population, highlighting a disproportionate exodus of the country's most productive and reproductive segment.
"As of the end of 2024, half of the people who moved out of the country were youth and children under 35," warned Arelis Rosalen Mora Pérez, a CEDEM researcher, describing this group as "a moving reserve."
The researcher pointed out that the 30 to 34-year-old demographic is the largest within Cuba's population pyramid, while the zero to four-year-old group is the least represented, a direct result of the plummeting birth rate.
As of 2026, Cuba's population stood at 9,436,440, a significant drop from 11.3 million in 2020, reflecting the combined impact of three simultaneous phenomena: more deaths than births, and more emigrants than immigrants.
The Alarming Decline in Birth Rates
The decline in birth rates is dramatic. From approximately 99,000 births in 2021, the country recorded only 68,051 in 2025—the lowest in decades—compared to 134,354 deaths that same year.
Officially, more than 250,000 Cubans emigrated in 2024, but independent estimates suggest the real figure exceeded 545,000. Since 2021, over a million people have left the island.
Aging is progressing alongside these trends: 25.7% of Cuba's population is over 60 years old, the highest proportion in Latin America, projected to reach 39.7% by 2050.
The UN warned this month that if current trends persist, Cuba's population could shrink to 5.6 million by 2100.
The Impact of Teenage Fertility and Social Challenges
In this context, CEDEM researchers also highlighted a critical paradox: teenage fertility. In 2024, the birth rate was 47.1 per 1,000 adolescents aged 15 to 19. Although it slightly decreased, its relative weight in the country's total fertility increased because other fertile age groups are emigrating or not having children.
Matilde Molina Cintra, CEDEM's deputy director, described teenage pregnancy as a social issue extending beyond health concerns.
"Pregnancy forces adolescents to deviate from what should be their normal enjoyment at this age, leading to a loss of social, educational, and health opportunities," she stated.
Molina Cintra also cautioned about the persistence of early unions, often with adults, which violate the sexual and reproductive rights of minors.
"If we pass laws, we must begin to enforce them," she emphasized, referring to Law 178/2025, which mandates the State's duty to prevent childhood and adolescent pregnancies.
A Nation in Search of a Future
Cuban youth who remain on the island also seem disillusioned with any future prospects there.
Antonio Aja Díaz, director of CEDEM, stressed that the demographic dynamics require "a migration policy where the right is not only to migrate but the right not to have to."
Aja Díaz believes the key is for young people—those currently present and those yet to be born and grow up—to see themselves represented in the national project, as only such representation can "lead them to participate and become protagonists."
However, six decades of communist rule have eroded this promise for entire generations of Cubans.
Understanding Cuba's Demographic Challenges
What is causing the demographic crisis in Cuba?
The crisis is primarily due to a combination of declining birth rates, high emigration rates, and an aging population, leading to a shrinking and aging demographic profile.
How has emigration affected Cuba's population?
Emigration has led to a significant loss of young and productive individuals, further exacerbating the demographic imbalance and affecting the country's future economic and social stability.
What are the implications of teenage fertility in Cuba?
Teenage fertility poses social challenges as it disrupts the normal developmental trajectory of adolescents, limiting their social, educational, and health opportunities.