Henrique Salas Römer Senior, a seasoned economist and former governor of Carabobo state in Venezuela, shared his forecast for Cuba’s political future during a conversation with CiberCuba. The 90-year-old predicted that the island would undergo significant political change by 2027, preceding Venezuela's stabilization, which he anticipates by early 2028.
Salas Römer, a Yale alumnus and former Venezuelan presidential candidate in 1998, did not mince words in setting this timeline. “I believe the year ’27 is when Cuba will emerge from this situation,” he asserted.
When journalist Tania Costa expressed astonishment at the seemingly distant timeline, the economist emphasized the need for pragmatism. “I don’t want to foster disillusionment; what’s required is realism. I must analyze without letting my emotions take over and view things without passion,” he stated.
U.S. Political Landscape's Impact on Cuba
The core of Salas Römer’s argument is that Washington is unlikely to undertake high-risk actions against Cuba during the ongoing U.S. electoral process set for November of this year. “I believe the United States won’t make any moves while this election is happening. It begins in November, followed by Christmas,” he clarified, referring to the midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
According to Salas Römer, this political schedule constrains any significant moves by Trump’s administration toward Cuba until well into 2027. With Trump’s approval ratings hovering between 34-37% and analysts giving Democrats an approximately 81% chance to regain the House of Representatives, the political room for costly ventures is limited before that time.
Cuba's Dire Humanitarian Crisis
In 2026, Cuba is engulfed in an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, marked by power outages lasting up to 25 hours, over 96,000 postponed surgeries, only 30% of essential medications available, and 33.9% of households enduring persistent hunger.
Drawing parallels with Venezuela, Salas Römer estimated between 60,000 and 70,000 missing persons there and warned that Cuba faces a more daunting challenge: four generations have lived under the regime, lacking a living memory of the nation before 1959.
Reflecting on the years gone by, the economist did not hide his frustration: “How many years have passed? From 59 to now, right? 68. By the year 27, it's 68. Does that seem soon? Well, it's about 68 years. Too long. Too long, isn’t it? Indeed, too long.”
Shared Perspectives on Cuba's Future
Salas Römer’s analysis aligns with the timeline considered by the Cuban Democratic Concertation, which has released a Provisional Electoral Law for electoral processes in 2027-2028. Prediction platforms have estimated a 52% likelihood that Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave power before 2027.
The Venezuelan economist concluded his reflection with a heartfelt nod to Cuba’s cultural heritage: “For the land of Celia Cruz, Guillén, the Sonora Matancera... Do you enjoy Cuban music? I do. From Pérez Prado.”
Insights into Cuba's Political and Humanitarian Outlook
What timeline did Henrique Salas Römer predict for Cuba's political change?
Henrique Salas Römer predicted that Cuba would experience a political transformation by the year 2027.
Why is the U.S. unlikely to take risks against Cuba before 2027?
According to Salas Römer, the U.S. is unlikely to take high-risk actions against Cuba due to the electoral process in the United States, which diminishes the political room for risky ventures until after the elections in November 2026.
What challenges is Cuba facing in 2026?
Cuba is grappling with a severe humanitarian crisis, including extended power outages, postponed surgeries, a shortage of essential medications, and widespread hunger.