The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has once again issued a stern warning regarding Cuba's demographic future. If current trends persist, the island nation may end this century with a mere 5.6 million inhabitants, nearly half of its population from just a few years ago.
This projection was reiterated during a meeting on June 29 in Havana between international organization representatives and Cuban regime officials, as reported by the state-run magazine Bohemia. Rather than showing signs of recovery, the official figures presented at the gathering confirm that the demographic crisis is intensifying.
Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, deputy head of the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), acknowledged that Cuba's population decreased from 11 million at the end of 2020 to just 9.4 million by late 2025, a reduction of over 1.6 million people in just five years.
"There is no comparable experience," admitted the official, noting that no country in the so-called Global South has endured such a population decline outside of a wartime context.
Birth Rates and Aging Population
Birth statistics illustrate the deterioration. In 2025, only 68,051 children were born in Cuba, the lowest number on record and even fewer than reported in 1899, following the War of Independence. The fertility rate fell to 1.29 children per woman, significantly below the level required for generational replacement.
Meanwhile, the population is aging rapidly. More than a quarter of Cubans are now 60 years old or older, while deaths nearly double the number of births.
Mass Exodus and Its Impact
The population decline isn't solely due to aging. Massive emigration remains a key factor in the demographic collapse.
Official data indicates that 251,221 people emigrated in 2024. However, Cuban demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos argues that the actual number exceeded 545,000 and estimates that the country's effective population is around eight million, well below the official estimate.
The new warning from UNFPA arrives just days after Miguel Díaz-Canel downplayed the exodus, claiming that migration is a "global issue" and attributing the departure of Cuban professionals to the allure of capitalist economies, without acknowledging the economic crisis, low wages, power outages, or lack of opportunities that many Cubans cite as reasons for leaving.
Government Policies and Data Challenges
In 2014, the Cuban government approved a Policy for Demographic Dynamics to curb aging and encourage birth rates. More than a decade later, official figures reveal that none of these goals have been met.
Adding to the problem is the lack of updated statistical information. Cuba hasn't conducted a national census since 2012. The census planned for 2022 was repeatedly postponed due to lack of resources, and although a new census operation began this year, results won't be available until 2027, leaving the nation without comprehensive demographic data for over a decade.
Understanding Cuba's Demographic Crisis
What is causing Cuba's population decline?
Cuba's population decline is primarily due to a combination of low birth rates, an aging population, and significant emigration.
How does Cuba's fertility rate compare to the generational replacement level?
Cuba's fertility rate is 1.29 children per woman, which is well below the generational replacement level needed to maintain the population size.
How reliable are Cuba's population statistics?
Cuba's population statistics may not be entirely reliable, as the country has not conducted a comprehensive national census since 2012, and the next results won't be available until 2027.