Cuban-American analyst Néstor T. Carbonell has issued a stark warning in an interview with CiberCuba. He stated that if diplomatic talks between Washington and Havana fail to lead to genuine change, "the necessity of some form of military action to complement diplomatic efforts cannot be ruled out, as the threat is real and cannot be postponed."
Carbonell, a lawyer, veteran of the 2506 Brigade, and author of "Why Cuba Matters? New Threats in America's Backyard," expressed this view when questioned about the alternatives if diplomatic avenues don't succeed.
According to the analyst, the situation demands immediate action: "If we don't seize this opportunity now, not only is the present and future of Cuba at risk amid a dire humanitarian crisis, but so is the wider hemisphere and the credibility of the United States in the eyes of foreign adversarial powers."
The core argument is that the global community is watching how Washington responds to a threat positioned just 90 miles from its shores, and this response will have worldwide ramifications.
"They are observing a scenario: how will the United States ultimately react to a danger 90 miles from its coast? This could have repercussions elsewhere as nations aim to replace the U.S. as the world's leading power," Carbonell elaborated.
This danger has specific identifiers. Carbonell's intelligence dossier indicates that Cuba hosts four Chinese-controlled electronic espionage bases targeting the southeastern United States, a region dense with military installations.
Meanwhile, Russia maintains two GLONASS stations on the island—dual-use facilities capable of satellite interference and monitoring—alongside similar setups in Venezuela and Nicaragua, forming a strategic triangular configuration in the hemisphere.
In May, U.S. officials with access to classified intelligence assessments warned that Chinese and Russian espionage activities in Cuba had nearly tripled since 2023.
During the interview, Tania Costa asked Carbonell whether he supported the option that Secretary of State Marco Rubio left open on June 4 before Congress: that technocrats within the regime could pave the way towards democracy, akin to events in Venezuela.
Rubio acknowledged to lawmakers that "there are certain technocrats with whom we could work," though he admitted lacking a trusted individual to lead this process.
Carbonell's skepticism regarding this pathway is rooted in stalled negotiations: the regime has released only 51 prisoners compared to over 1,200 recognized political detainees. Experts indicate that Díaz-Canel employs delaying tactics to reach the midterm elections in November without making real concessions.
Both the Pentagon and the U.S. Southern Command have initiated contingency planning exercises related to Cuba, yet no decision on intervention has been reached.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis on the island worsens: 2 million people affected, power outages exceeding 30 hours, and 96,000 postponed surgeries. Carbonell describes it as a "dire humanitarian situation," reinforcing his view that action is necessary before the regime depletes the available time.
Understanding the Current Situation in Cuba
What are the potential consequences of diplomatic failure between the U.S. and Cuba?
If diplomatic efforts fail, it could lead to discussions or actions regarding military intervention, as the threat posed by foreign powers in Cuba is considered immediate and serious.
Why is the global community closely monitoring the U.S. response to Cuba?
The global community is observing to see how the U.S. handles a threat just 90 miles from its coast, as this response could have broader implications for international power dynamics.
What is the current humanitarian situation in Cuba?
Cuba faces a severe humanitarian crisis, with 2 million people affected, prolonged power outages, and tens of thousands of surgeries postponed, highlighting the urgent need for action.