Bolivian lawyer, political scientist, and former minister Carlos Sánchez Berzain issued a stark warning about discussions on Cuba’s transition: the primary focus must be on achieving freedom before considering constitutions or institutional models.
“Freedom first, institutionalization later,” Sánchez Berzain emphasized during a conversation with Tania Costa. As the director of the Interamerican Institute for Democracy, he offered an analysis of Cuba's current regime and explored potential paths toward change.
His stance was unequivocal in rejecting any discourse on transition models as long as the dictatorship remains in power. “I am reluctant, I refuse to discuss those possibilities until the change happens. Until the United States removes the dictatorship from Cuba — as it is the only country capable of doing so — we won’t discuss what comes next. Not with me, at least, because that is merely an imagination that serves the Cuban dictatorship to divide the Cubans,” he asserted.
This viewpoint holds significant weight as the Cuban exile community actively debates which institutional model should govern a post-dictatorship Cuba. While some factions advocate for the restoration of the 1940 Constitution and others propose their own roadmaps, Sánchez Berzain warns that such premature debates are exactly the trap set by the regime. He believes dividing Cubans is a deliberate strategy of the Castro regime.
“One of the essential tactics used by the Castro regime in Cuba and beyond is to multiply the axes of confrontation. The goal is to make people fight. Why? Because the more they fight, the easier they are to control,” he explained.
Sánchez Berzain pointed out how this strategy manifests in specific ways. “What do they do in Cuba? They divide the regions. Cuba becomes racist. Cuba becomes elitist.”
He cited Bolivia as an example of this strategy being employed outside Cuba, claiming that Castro-Chavez influence forced a constitution declaring 36 nations within Bolivia.
“They have tried to replace the Bolivian nation, which is one — unity in diversity — with a constitution stating there are 36 nations. This is not true. Bolivia is not a plurinational country; it is a multicultural country. Everyone is multicultural, but it is one nation,” he stated.
Despite his refusal to debate models before change occurs, Sánchez Berzain did outline potential scenarios he envisions once the regime falls.
“In Cuba's current state, what might follow could be a governing board that manages and restores conditions of freedom and democracy, possibly resembling the Gaza Strip; or a supervised process, perhaps similar to Venezuela; or a different process involving the extraordinary Cuban-American human capital in the world of freedom,” he noted.
He also suggested a fourth scenario: a re-institutionalization with foreign intervention, akin to Japan's transformation into an economic power after World War II.
This interview with Sánchez Berzain, his first with CiberCuba, came a day after his article “The Last Days of the Cuban Dictatorship” was published in Infobae, where he argued the regime “lacks people, narrative, economy, and options.”
The transition debate has also sparked critical voices within Cuban activism, rejecting both the 1940 Constitution and externally designed solutions, advocating instead for a direct popular consultation.
“There is a long dynamic of possibilities and solutions,” Sánchez Berzain concluded, stressing that none should be discussed until Cuba is free.
Key Insights on Cuba's Path to Freedom
Why does Sánchez Berzain emphasize freedom over institutionalization?
Sánchez Berzain believes that focusing on freedom first prevents the Cuban dictatorship from exploiting debates on institutionalization to divide the Cuban people.
What strategies does the Cuban regime use to maintain control, according to Sánchez Berzain?
He suggests that the regime uses tactics like fostering division and confrontation among Cubans to maintain control.
What are the possible scenarios for Cuba after the regime falls?
Potential scenarios include a governing board restoring democracy, a supervised transition similar to Venezuela, or a re-institutionalization with foreign intervention.