Former Bolivian minister and current lawyer and political analyst Carlos Sánchez Berzaín issued a stark warning this Tuesday, asserting that any potential U.S. intervention in Cuba would be driven by national security concerns rather than humanitarian motives. He emphasized that an "ultimatum" is currently unfolding, supported by legal, political, international, and military measures.
Sánchez Berzaín, who serves as the director of the Interamerican Institute for Democracy, made his position clear in an interview with Tania Costa. "The United States will not undertake this as an act of charity towards the Cubans; it will do so out of self-interest. After 67 years of being directly and indirectly attacked by Cuba's dictatorship, the time has come for this to end. As a result, the Cuban people will regain their freedom," he stated.
To bolster his argument, the former minister laid out a historical timeline of Cuba’s aggressive actions against Washington.
The Historical Context of Cuban Aggression
Sánchez Berzaín highlighted that the Cuban dictatorship was responsible for the 1962 missile crisis by transforming the island into a Soviet communist stronghold through the deployment of missiles that nearly sparked World War III.
He also noted Fidel Castro's explicit declaration of drug trafficking as an anti-imperialist tool. During the 1960s, Cuba was instrumental in the formation of various Latin American guerrilla movements, including the FARC, national liberation armies, the Tupamaros, Montoneros, Shining Path, and MRTA.
Modern Tactics: Forced Migration as Hybrid Warfare
In the 21st century, Sánchez Berzaín identified forced migration as the primary method of hybrid warfare employed by the Cuban regime and its allies.
"Countries far more affected than the United States by forced migration as a hybrid warfare element include Colombia, with over a million and a half Venezuelans. Look at Peru, and the ongoing disputes between Peru and Chile over expelling Venezuelans—it’s an issue no one wants to deal with," he remarked.
Within this framework, the former minister dismissed the need for Washington to justify any potential operations in Cuba. "Do not demand that the United States justify an operation in Cuba. Just look at the objective reality," he argued.
Trump Administration’s Firm Stance
His analysis aligns with the actions taken by the Trump Administration. On January 29, 2026, Trump signed Executive Order 14380, declaring a national emergency and labeling Cuba an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to national security, along with imposing tariffs on countries supplying it with oil.
Subsequently, on May 1, 2026, Trump issued Executive Order 14404, which expanded sanctions by freezing the assets of Cuban officials, banning their entry into the United States, and extending these measures to their adult family members.
The Trump Administration justifies this pressure by pointing out that Cuba hosts hostile intelligence operations, collaborates militarily with Russia, China, and Iran, and shelters groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
Potential Outcomes of the Ultimatum
Sánchez Berzaín laid out potential scenarios under the ongoing ultimatum: ranging from the peaceful handover of power with guarantees of impunity for the Castro and Díaz-Canel families to a "forced recovery of Cuban people's sovereignty."
He summed up the core issue succinctly: "The matter is called the national security of the United States. That's all there is to it."
Understanding U.S. Involvement in Cuba
Why might the U.S. consider acting against Cuba?
The U.S. may consider action against Cuba due to national security concerns, stemming from Cuba's aggressive history and its current alliances and activities that pose threats to U.S. interests.
What are the historical reasons for U.S. intervention considerations?
Historically, Cuba's involvement in the 1962 missile crisis and support for various guerrilla movements in Latin America are key reasons for U.S. concerns.
How is forced migration used as a strategy by Cuba?
Forced migration is viewed as a form of hybrid warfare, destabilizing regions by creating refugee crises, as seen with Venezuelans in Colombia, Peru, and Chile.