Bolivian lawyer, political analyst, and former minister, Carlos Sánchez Berzain, declared in an interview with Tania Costa that Cuba is on the brink of ending its dictatorship. According to his analysis, the regime has lost four fundamental pillars, making its continuation untenable.
"We are witnessing the final days of the Cuban dictatorship, a regime devoid of public support, narrative, economy, and options," stated Sánchez Berzain, who serves as the director of the Interamerican Institute for Democracy based in Miami.
The Regime's Waning Governance
Sánchez Berzain's critique centers on the idea that the Cuban government has exhausted its governance resources. "They've run out of everything; they have no elements of governance left, no future prospects, and they are under the ultimatum of the world's most significant democracy, the United States," he asserted.
The former minister outlined the potential paths that Washington might propose. "I believe these options range from a peaceful transition of power, securing exile with impunity guarantees for the Castro and Díaz-Canel circles, to a forceful reclamation of Cuban sovereignty," he detailed.
The Role of Hybrid Warfare
A second component of his argument is the notion of hybrid warfare. According to Sánchez Berzain, Cuba has long spearheaded indirect attacks against the United States and hemispheric democracies, under the guise of 21st-century socialism.
"Hybrid warfare involves the direct, yet often indirect, use of cohesive tools to weaken a society, to undermine a country, and to strip it of internal strength and unity," he explained.
The analyst cited forced migration, drug trafficking, narcoterrorism, and human trafficking as instruments of this hybrid warfare, contributing to regional destabilization.
Geopolitical Dynamics and Economic Pressure
The third aspect is geopolitical. Sánchez Berzain argues that Donald Trump's second term activated what he calls the "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine.
"Any form of physical aggression, destabilization mechanisms, economic assault, or attacks on any Americas' country constitutes an attack against the United States," he contended.
This doctrinal stance, according to the analyst, positions Cuba as a direct threat to U.S. national security and justifies the ongoing ultimatum.
Economic data reflects the pressure on the regime. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) forecasts a 6.5% drop in Cuba's GDP by 2026, the worst contraction in Latin America, while economist Pedro Monreal warns of a potential 15% decline. Provinces are experiencing power outages exceeding 24 hours daily.
Moreover, the collapse of Venezuelan support compounds these challenges: Nicolás Maduro's capture in January 2026 severed 80% to 90% of the oil supply Caracas provided to the island, totaling $63.8 billion over decades.
Foreign Divestment and Economic Reforms
On May 1, 2026, the Trump Administration issued an ultimatum requiring foreign companies to disengage from GAESA and the Cuban military apparatus by June 5. Spanish hotel chains Meliá and Iberostar exited Cuba to meet the deadline, resulting in a 55.8% drop in international tourism from January to April 2026.
Facing mounting pressure, Miguel Díaz-Canel announced on June 12 a package of 176 economic reform measures, including private banking introductions and partial dollarization, yet without any political changes.
"All objective reality indicates that the moment has come for the end of the dictatorship in Cuba," concluded Sánchez Berzain.
Understanding Cuba's Political Crisis
What are the main factors leading to the end of Cuba's dictatorship?
According to Carlos Sánchez Berzain, Cuba's dictatorship is ending due to the loss of public support, lack of a cohesive narrative, economic failure, and pressure from international powers, particularly the United States.
How does hybrid warfare relate to Cuba's strategy?
Hybrid warfare involves using indirect methods such as migration, drug trafficking, and human trafficking to destabilize other nations, a strategy Cuba has employed against the United States and other democracies in the region.