Trump Gains Influence Across Latin America: Majority of Regional Leaders Now Aligned with Him

The recent election of the far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia's presidential runoff marks an unprecedented political shift in Latin America: nearly all regional governments are now aligning themselves with Donald Trump, according to a CNN en Español analysis released on Monday.

Preliminary results from the National Registry showed De la Espriella receiving 49.65% of the vote compared to Iván Cepeda of the Historical Pact, who garnered 48.70%, with a margin of about 250,000 votes. Should the final tally confirm this outcome, Colombia will join a series of victories favorable to Trump's influence: Nasry Asfura's win in Honduras with explicit backing from the White House, Washington-aligned incumbents holding power in Costa Rica, and the far-right José Antonio Kast defeating the left in Chile.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio congratulated De la Espriella by phone shortly after the polls closed and posted on X: "The Trump Administration looks forward to closely collaborating with your upcoming administration to enhance regional security cooperation, halt illegal immigration to the United States, and strengthen our economic ties. Colombia's brightest days lie ahead."

Trump's strategy in the region mixes coercive pressure—tariff wars, a hardline immigration stance, and military deployments in the Caribbean—with direct bilateral incentives that have reshaped the subcontinent's alliances.

The most visible element of this framework is the Shield of the Americas, whose inaugural forum was held on March 7 in Miami with participation from 12 countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, the Dominican Republic, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, and Chile's president-elect.

Among Trump's most steadfast allies are Javier Milei in Argentina, Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, and Daniel Noboa in Ecuador.

Milei, whom Trump has called his "favorite president" and about whom he once said, "I love him because he loves Trump, I love anyone who loves me," signed a Reciprocal Investment Trade Agreement in 2026, a joint patrol agreement for the South Atlantic, and advanced lithium negotiations. Argentina supports Washington in every UN vote.

Bukele has strengthened his role as a key partner in the immigration agenda by accepting deportees at the Center for Confinement of Terrorism (CECOT). Deportations from the United States to El Salvador doubled in the first months of 2026 compared to the same period the previous year.

Noboa, who visited Mar-a-Lago before the 2025 runoff, maintains joint operations against organized crime with U.S. technological and intelligence assistance.

Mónica Hirst, a strategic studies expert at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, cautions that this dynamic lacks a defined strategy: "The MAGA movement operates on impulses," she told CNN, highlighting that "each relationship is unique, each link is negotiated directly, without collective frameworks."

Pete Hegseth's message from Guantanamo on June 11—"We're reclaiming our hemisphere"—captures the doctrine Washington is projecting onto the region, amid growing tensions with Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua.

The major electoral wildcard is Brazil, where Lula da Silva is vying for reelection against Flavio Bolsonaro, who has the White House's support. A May 2026 poll placed them at 42% and 41%, respectively. Should the Workers' Party lose in October, Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico would find herself virtually without ideological allies across the region.