The United States has already secured its spot, but the final matchday promises genuine excitement: the fate of Paraguay and Australia hangs in the balance, and the group's final standings are still up for grabs.
Highlights from the First Two Matches
The group kicked off with a decisive victory: on June 12 at Los Angeles' SoFi Stadium, the United States dominated Paraguay 4-1. Folarin Balogun shone with a brace (31' and 45'+5'), complemented by an own goal from Bobadilla in the seventh minute, and Giovanni Reyna sealing the deal in stoppage time.
The surprise came two days later when Australia stunned Turkey 2-0 in Vancouver despite having just 28% ball possession. Goals from Nestory Irankunda (27') and Connor Metcalfe (75') left the Turkish side with no answers, despite their control of the game.
Matchday 2: Confirming Hierarchies
The second matchday solidified the hierarchy. The United States triumphed 2-0 over Australia in Seattle, even without Christian Pulisic in the lineup, thanks to an own goal by Cameron Burgess in the 11th minute and a VAR-approved header by Alex Freeman in the 43rd. On the same day, Paraguay secured three crucial points against Turkey with a goal from Matías Galarza, despite playing with one less man after Miguel Almirón's expulsion.
Current Standings After Two Matches
The standings are as follows:
- 1. United States - 6 points, +5 goal difference
- 2. Australia - 3 points, 0 goal difference
- 3. Paraguay - 3 points, -2 goal difference
- 4. Turkey - 0 points, eliminated
While Turkey is mathematically out, the remaining teams have varying chances.
Final Matchday Scenarios
All four teams will play simultaneously on Thursday, June 26, at 10:00 PM Cuban time, with Paraguay facing Australia at Levi's Stadium in San Francisco and Turkey squaring off against the United States at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. This simultaneous format is standard for FIFA to prevent collusion.
The United States leads with six points and a +5 goal difference and is already through, needing only to determine if they'll finish first or second.
Australia, with three points and a neutral goal difference, is almost assured progression. A win against Paraguay guarantees them the top spot; a loss could place them second or even third, depending on other results.
Paraguay faces the most pressure. They have three points but a -2 goal difference. A victory over Australia would bring them to six points, potentially securing first or second place depending on the United States' outcome. A draw would leave them with four points, likely placing them third, contingent on the rankings of the best third-place teams. Out of 12 groups, only the top eight third-place teams advance to the round of 16, with ties broken by points, goal difference, goals scored, fair play, and FIFA ranking. With a -2 goal difference, Paraguay must win and improve their stats.
While Turkey has nothing to play for mathematically, they could still influence the group's top spot if they manage an upset against the hosts.
As the final matchday approaches, Paraguay stands out as the team with the most at stake, needing a win to avoid relying on results from other groups.
Key Questions About Group D's Final Matchday
What does the United States need to finish first in Group D?
The United States needs to either win or draw against Turkey to secure the top spot in Group D.
How can Paraguay advance to the next round?
Paraguay must win against Australia to increase their points and potentially improve their goal difference, enhancing their chances to advance either as a top-two team or as one of the best third-place teams.