Sandro Castro, the grandson of Fidel Castro and a Cuban influencer, shared a prediction on Instagram this Saturday, suggesting the dollar will decrease or stabilize around 700 Cuban pesos (CUP) in the informal market. This forecast follows the announcement of 176 economic measures by the regime.
The prediction comes amidst significant devaluation of the national currency. The dollar surged from 585 CUP at the start of June to 695 CUP by 11:00 AM on Saturday, marking an increase of 110 CUP in just twenty days. Meanwhile, the euro is trading at 795 CUP, and the MLC at 505 CUP in the unofficial market.
In his Instagram story, Castro directly addressed El Toque—the platform known for publishing daily informal exchange rates, which he referred to as "the villain"—warning them that their days of rising rates are numbered.
"I believe that with these new measures, which lead to foreign investment and the entry of international banks, you'll play the game of going dark and then drop a bit because you had no measures to hold onto, but now you do," he declared.
The influencer offered a more specific forecast, suggesting a ceiling for the dollar at 700 CUP within the island's informal market.
"I already know you're going to drop a bit or pause the dollar at 700 CUP because you won't rely on salary increases or anything like that; significant foreign money will come in. So, I'll be watching you, El Toque," he stated.
According to his reasoning, the key will not be internal salaries but the influx of foreign capital, which he believes the new measures will facilitate.
The announced package includes the authorization of private banking for the first time since 1959, private currency exchange houses, currency auctions, and a real-time digital exchange market, as well as broader openings to foreign investment.
Sandro Castro has been publicly feuding with El Toque for months. In October 2025, he blamed the platform for the rise of the dollar and called on businesses and small enterprises to organize against the increase.
In November of that year, he accused the platform of earning "100 million dollars" in a single day by manipulating the exchange market.
In December 2025, when the Central Bank announced a new floating rate scheme, he celebrated the move with a "we did it," referencing his previous campaigns. However, this did not achieve the desired effect, as the dollar's price continued to rise in Cuba's black market.
Now, with the introduction of the new economic measures, Sandro Castro returns with a concrete forecast and a grand vision, believing "the foreign money will be substantial."
Not everyone shares his optimism. The United States government has dismissed the regime’s reforms as "superficial smoke signals."
Furthermore, the implementation of the economic measures package will necessitate amending over 148 legal provisions and approving 32 new regulations, a process that could take months.
Understanding Cuba's Economic Measures and Dollar Forecast
What are the new economic measures announced in Cuba?
The new economic measures include the authorization of private banks, private currency exchange houses, currency auctions, a real-time digital exchange market, and increased foreign investment opportunities.
Why does Sandro Castro believe the dollar will stabilize?
Sandro Castro predicts that the dollar will stabilize due to the influx of foreign capital and international banks entering Cuba, which he believes will result from the new economic measures.
What is El Toque's role in Cuba's exchange rate market?
El Toque is a platform that publishes daily informal exchange rates in Cuba, and it has been a point of contention for Sandro Castro, who blames it for influencing the rise of the dollar in the informal market.