The United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed the presence of oceanic and atmospheric conditions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. Projections indicate a rapid intensification in the coming months, with direct consequences for Cuba in the form of drought and extreme heat.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center report, there is a 63% likelihood that the phenomenon will reach a "very intense" category between November 2026 and January 2027.
If this forecast materializes, the event could become one of the most forceful recorded since the latter half of the 20th century.
Implications for Cuba's Climate
For Cuba, the return of El Niño signifies, as specialists from the Climate Center at the Institute of Meteorology (Insmet) note, "a higher probability of drought conditions during the rainy season," which spans from May to October, "as well as warmer than usual summers."
This scenario unfolds at a particularly vulnerable time for the island: as of March 2026, drought affected 62% of the national territory, with water reserves at just 38% capacity, the lowest level since 2015.
Rising Temperatures and Water Stress
A forecast released in April had already warned of exceedingly high temperatures expected between June and August, along with prolonged periods of intense heat and increased water stress in Cuba.
The closest precedent was the summer of 2025, when Cuban experts first linked heatwaves to a rise in daily mortality rates, particularly affecting the elderly, children, pregnant women, and those with chronic illnesses.
Impact on the Cyclone Season
The phenomenon also holds implications for the ongoing cyclone season. Insmet experts indicate that the presence of ENSO "tends to suppress cyclonic activity in the tropical Atlantic basin by strengthening upper-atmosphere wind shear," which hinders the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones.
However, they caution that "this does not eliminate the risk of at least one system affecting Cuba."
For the 2026 cyclone season, Insmet projected a 40% probability of at least one hurricane impacting the island and a 75% chance of a tropical storm doing so.
Historical Context and Continuing Vigilance
The 1997-1998 El Niño episode—the most intense of the 20th century—resulted in severe drought in Cuba, exacerbating the already precarious state of the agricultural sector, a scenario meteorologists do not rule out with the current event.
"The Climate Center at Insmet maintains close monitoring of ENSO's evolution," concludes the official report, as the Cuban populace already contends with water shortages and extreme temperatures without the necessary resources or infrastructure to mitigate these effects.
Understanding El Niño and Its Effects on Cuba
What is El Niño and how does it affect climate conditions?
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It can lead to significant weather changes, including increased rainfall in some regions and droughts in others, and can also influence global temperature patterns.
How might El Niño impact Cuba specifically?
In Cuba, El Niño is expected to increase the likelihood of drought conditions during the rainy season and lead to hotter than normal summers. This can exacerbate existing water shortages and stress on agriculture.
What precautions are being taken in Cuba to address the impact of El Niño?
Meteorologists and climate specialists in Cuba are closely monitoring the development of El Niño to better predict and prepare for its impacts. However, limited resources and infrastructure pose significant challenges in mitigating these effects.