Esteemed economist Pedro Monreal took to Twitter on Friday, releasing a series of six tweets to criticize the "Economic and Social Program 2026" unveiled by Miguel Díaz-Canel earlier in the day. Monreal questioned the feasibility of these plans to bring about the necessary changes in Cuba's economic model.
In a pointed critique titled "And Then an Ox Flew," Monreal directly addressed Díaz-Canel's announcements made on the show "Revista Buenos Días." The Cuban leader had outlined six reform pillars, urging citizens to trust with the reassurance that "the country is not at a standstill."
Monreal argued that given the failure of the centrally planned model—mainly due to its inherent shortcomings—there are only two honorable paths: "accept the political cost of failure, or critically reassess and drastically overhaul the model."
He warned that any other approach is misleading: "As has happened before, official rhetoric is inflated to sell a supposed 'enhancement' spiced with 'openness' as a third option, which might still deceive some, but is an obsolete trick."
The economist also criticized the intellectual capacity of the government's economic team: "The fact that the government can only think of 'removing obstacles,' the 'centralization-decentralization contradiction,' or the municipality and state enterprise as key 'cogs' says much about the intellectual fatigue of the economic team."
Monreal further linked the proposal to create a ministry of information and social communication to the regime's need to shield its narrative: "Listening to recycled old economic dogmas mixed with new improvised ideas helps explain the proposal for a ministry of information and social communication, among other things, to sustain an economic discourse divorced from reality."
In the final tweet, Monreal encapsulated his argument with a central critique: "The numbers don't add up, and the government wants to make it seem like it's not a mathematical issue, but one of will," describing the model as an "economic sinkhole" requiring more subsidized resources than it produces in real economic value.
The reforms announced by Díaz-Canel still need approval from the Political Bureau and the National Assembly, scheduled for July. Another Cuban economist described these measures as "belated pragmatism" on the same day.
Monreal's analysis comes at a dire economic time for Cuba: a 23% GDP contraction since 2019, power outages lasting 20 to 25 hours daily, and widespread shortages of water, fuel, and soaring inflation. In May, Monreal himself warned that Cuba "missed the train" for reforms akin to the Chinese-Vietnamese model and predicted a potential 15% GDP decline by 2026.
Meanwhile, Díaz-Canel defended the lack of transparency in his announcements with a cautionary note: "We can't say everything clearly because the enemy is watching everything we do."
Understanding Economic Reforms in Cuba
What are the proposed reforms by Díaz-Canel?
The proposed reforms by Díaz-Canel include six pillars aimed at transforming the economic model, with a focus on decentralization and enhancing state enterprises.
Why does Pedro Monreal criticize these reforms?
Pedro Monreal criticizes these reforms as unrealistic and misleading, arguing they are a rehash of failed policies and do not address the fundamental issues of the economic model.
What is the current economic situation in Cuba?
Cuba is currently facing a severe economic crisis with a 23% GDP contraction, frequent power outages, and shortages of essential goods like water and fuel, alongside high inflation.