The hurricane experts at Colorado State University (CSU) have released their June update for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, revising their earlier April predictions. The latest forecast anticipates the lowest tropical cyclone activity across the basin since 2015.
This update comes in light of the official declaration of the El Niño phenomenon by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service, confirming its presence in the eastern tropical Pacific.
CSU, known for being the first to issue seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984, now predicts 11 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (category three or higher) for 2026. This is a decrease from their April projection of 13 storms, six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes.
These figures are significantly below the 30-year average, which includes 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which assesses the combined intensity and duration of storms, is expected to be about 40% below the historical average, according to the new projections.
Reduced Hurricane Threat for 2026
The likelihood of a major hurricane striking the United States in 2026 has fallen to 23%, nearly half the historical average of 43% recorded from 1880 to 2020.
The probabilities of landfall along the U.S. coastline are broken down as follows: 24% for the entire coast, 14% for the Gulf of Mexico, 11% for the East Coast, and 26% for the Caribbean.
Impact of El Niño on Hurricane Activity
The primary factor for the forecast revision is the type of El Niño developing—a canonical or classic episode—with warming concentrated in the eastern Pacific. This pattern typically results in increased wind shear over the Caribbean and the main hurricane development region in the Atlantic.
"The rapid transition to El Niño is the main reason why we anticipate much lower-than-average activity during this Atlantic hurricane season," the CSU team stated in their update.
Temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 monitoring region have already surpassed records from other strong episodes that began in 2023, 2015, 1997, and 1982. Seasonal models indicate a 95% chance of a strong or very strong El Niño developing during the peak months of the season, from August to October.
Additionally, models predict the highest wind shear recorded since 1981 for the Atlantic development region this fall, which would hinder the organization and strengthening of tropical systems.
Remaining Vigilant Despite Low Activity
Despite the promising outlook, experts caution that a season with low activity does not eliminate the possibility of danger.
Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was the only category three or higher hurricane in a very inactive season—with just seven named storms—and became one of the costliest disasters in U.S. history after devastating South Florida.
This warning holds particular significance for Cuba, still reeling from the impact of Hurricane Melissa on October 29, 2025. The hurricane made landfall in the eastern part of the island as a category three storm, damaging over 116,000 homes and affecting more than 3.5 million people.
The Cuban Meteorology Institute (INSMET) had predicted a less active season in May, with 11 cyclones, five hurricanes, and two of great intensity, estimating a 40% probability of at least one hurricane affecting the island in 2026, slightly above the historical average of 35%.
Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service at NOAA, emphasized the experts' stance against complacency: "It only takes one storm to make it a very bad season."
Understanding the 2026 Hurricane Season Forecast
What led to the revised forecast for the 2026 hurricane season?
The revision was prompted by the official declaration of the El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, reducing hurricane activity.
How does El Niño affect hurricane activity?
El Niño conditions, characterized by warm ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific, typically result in increased wind shear in the Atlantic, hindering the development and strengthening of hurricanes.
What are the predicted chances of a major hurricane impacting the U.S. in 2026?
The probability of a major hurricane impacting the United States in 2026 is estimated at 23%, significantly less than the historical average of 43%.
Why is it important to remain vigilant despite a low activity forecast?
Even in seasons with low activity, individual storms can cause significant damage. Historical examples, such as Hurricane Andrew in 1992, highlight the importance of preparedness.