On Friday, Miguel Díaz-Canel unveiled a series of economic reforms under the regime's so-called "Social and Economic Program for 2026." He called for public input, though the measures have already been agreed upon and are set for swift approval.
“Anyone with a better idea or proposal, feel free to speak up, and we will always consider it,” he stated, yet he noted that the plans have been finalized and are ready to be promptly enacted.
Among the standout initiatives is enabling municipalities to engage in import and export activities without intermediaries and to directly manage foreign investments.
Díaz-Canel elaborated, “Municipalities will be able to import and export without higher-level structures. They can manage foreign currency income and foreign investments, whether with companies or Cubans living abroad.”
He also mentioned that state-owned enterprises will operate without external interference, retain foreign currency, and choose their clients and suppliers. Additionally, Cubans abroad will be allowed to invest on the same terms as foreign entities.
Other plans include gradually removing subsidies on goods, replacing them with targeted assistance for vulnerable individuals, reducing restrictions on private sector activities, fast-tracking approval of stalled small and medium enterprises (MIPYMES), implementing electronic invoicing, and easing vehicle importation, with a focus on electric vehicles.
Contradictory Calls for Public Input
Díaz-Canel's invitation to public discussion appears contradictory, as the proposals are already in the final stages of approval by the Politburo and the National Assembly, highlighting the superficial nature of this invitation.
The leader himself justified the lack of transparency in the process with a revealing statement: “We can’t say everything clearly because the enemy is watching our every move.”
Energy Crisis and Economic Decline
He acknowledged that “only one oil tanker has arrived in Cuba in the last five months,” blaming the crisis on the U.S. embargo, which he described as a “criminal energy blockade.”
Cuba is experiencing its worst economic downturn in decades, with the GDP plummeting more than 15% since 2020. Projections for this year suggest further contraction between 6.5% and 15%, according to CEPAL, The Economist Intelligence Unit, and economist Pedro Monreal, who warned of a bleak outlook in May.
The context of these reforms is dire: power outages lasting up to 30 hours in some provinces, severe shortages of food and medicine, and unprecedented mass emigration.
History of Unfulfilled Promises
This pattern of announcements without effective implementation is typical of the dictatorship. Díaz-Canel previously called for immediate economic model reforms in March with no visible results, and the 2021 "Tarea Ordenamiento" led to rampant inflation, worsening living conditions for Cubans.
According to Díaz-Canel, the newly announced measures will be discussed and approved “in a very agile manner” in the coming days, to be subsequently explained to the public through all ministries. However, the regime’s track record offers little cause for optimism.
Understanding Cuba's Economic Reforms
What are the key features of Cuba's new economic reforms?
The reforms include allowing municipalities to import and export directly, enabling foreign investment management, reducing restrictions on private sector activities, and gradually eliminating subsidies on goods in favor of targeted assistance.
How has Díaz-Canel justified the lack of transparency in the reform process?
Díaz-Canel has claimed that not everything can be disclosed clearly because "the enemy is watching our every move," implying security concerns regarding the U.S. embargo.
Why is there skepticism about the effectiveness of these reforms?
There is skepticism due to a history of unfulfilled promises by the regime, including previous calls for economic reform and the failed "Tarea Ordenamiento" which led to increased inflation.