Jorge Piñón, a researcher at the University of Texas's Energy Institute, has shared insights into Cuba's fuel predicament, initially projecting a depletion of the nation's strategic reserves by late March or early April 2026. Surprisingly, this anticipated "zero hour" has yet to occur, leaving analysts puzzled.
In a conversation with Tania Acosta, Piñón confessed, "We, the so-called experts, initially calculated that by late March, the first week of April, the strategic reserves we estimated Cuba had would already be depleted."
Admitting the miscalculation, he stated, "We've spent two months now questioning where this fuel is coming from."
Unexpected Reserves and Floating Storage
Piñón's theory is that Cuba's reserves were underestimated, partly because tankers anchored at Cuban ports have been utilized as floating storage.
"The tankers currently anchored in various Cuban ports have been used as floating storage. They weren't empty; they were filled with fuel oil, then diesel, then gasoline, contributing to the inventory," he explained.
Original estimates only considered reserves at the main refineries in Havana, Santiago de Cuba, and Cienfuegos, alongside minor distribution terminals, overlooking this floating volume.
Critical Situation and External Supply Challenges
Despite these hidden reserves, Piñón warned of a dire current scenario: "In our study, when we look at reserves, we see a zero there."
The outlook for external supply is equally bleak. He narrated the case of the Russian tanker Universal, which wandered aimlessly in the Atlantic for weeks: "It spent over 20, 21 days spinning around with no destination. Eventually, it headed south to Brazil and is now there."
This incident, according to Piñón, indicates Russia's hesitation to confront U.S. sanctions despite public assurances: "Even the Russians, for some reason, have become wary of the United States and haven't entered Cuban waters."
The contrast between Moscow's statements and actions is stark: "We've heard declarations from their ambassador, from Moscow, claiming they're ready to aid their Cuban brothers. Yet, when a Russian tanker nears Cuban waters, it retreats, avoiding entry."
Impact of U.S. Sanctions
This analysis comes shortly after the United States officially sanctioned CUPET last Wednesday under Executive Order 14404, signed by Trump on May 1, 2026, prohibiting transactions between American entities and the state-run oil company that manages Cuba's petroleum supply chain.
On the same day, Miami-Dade revoked the license of Vanguard Energy, a company that had planned to export fuel to Cuba, after learning the Department of State had not approved the operation.
Mexico and Other International Factors
Mexico offers no solution either: "Mexico is not sending any oil. We don't think it will be in the coming months," Piñón concluded.
On May 14, Cuba's Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy conceded that the nation had "absolutely no fuel, no diesel, only accompanying gas," underscoring the severity of a crisis that, according to Piñón, will worsen as Cuba approaches a transitional period.
Understanding Cuba's Fuel Crisis
What is the "zero hour" in Cuba's fuel crisis?
The "zero hour" refers to the point when Cuba's strategic fuel reserves were expected to be completely depleted, initially predicted for late March or early April 2026.
How has Cuba managed to avoid the "zero hour" so far?
Cuba has seemingly avoided the "zero hour" due to underestimated reserves, including the use of anchored tankers as floating storage, which were not accounted for in original estimates.
Why is Russia hesitant to deliver fuel to Cuba?
Russia appears hesitant to deliver fuel to Cuba due to a reluctance to challenge U.S. sanctions, despite making public commitments to support Cuba.