Cuban dissident Antonio Rodiles has sounded the alarm, emphasizing that the people of the island are not "living" but merely "surviving." He warns that this extreme level of hardship has left a lasting impact on Cuban society, which any transition process must seriously address.
"It's a deeply affected population, millions of people are very affected," Rodiles stated in an interview with journalist Tania Costa. "When you live in such dire conditions, marginality bites, and it has bitten the Cuban people hard."
Challenges of Returning to Cuba
Rodiles directly questioned those in exile who talk about returning to Cuba without understanding the enormity of the challenge: "I sometimes wonder, do the people who say they're going back to Cuba really know what they're up against? Do they understand what needs to be managed?"
He illustrated the difficulty of governing in crisis conditions by referencing a historical example: "Let's remember that Tomás Estrada Palma repeatedly cried out for American intervention. That was a much simpler country than the one we have now."
The first president of Cuba asked for U.S. military intervention during the 1906 crisis, which led to his resignation and the second U.S. occupation of the island. Rodiles uses this precedent to highlight that today's Cuba, with its crumbling infrastructure and millions of emigrants, presents a far greater challenge.
The Viability of New Political Movements
When asked about the emergence of the Partido Liberal Ortodoxo Cubano (PLOC), founded by Amelia Calzadilla from Madrid on April 27, Rodiles acknowledged the right of individuals to organize, but questioned the feasibility: "To have a party, there must be financial backing."
He pointed out that most funding for Cuban opposition organizations and NGOs comes from external institutions, and that money disappears as soon as the recipient deviates from the donors' directives: "The moment you say something that doesn't align with their lines, that funding vanishes."
Speaking from personal experience, Rodiles shared, "Suddenly you can appear, and the next day you might disappear, because meetings, connections, trips to Geneva, all depend on external actors." He revealed that an NGO withdrew a project from him after he made statements they didn't like, and announced plans to publish the document proving it.
Structural Issues Beyond Funding
Beyond financial support, Rodiles identified a deeper structural problem: the lack of concrete planning for the country's reconstruction. "The issue isn't saying 'I want a beautiful, pretty, painted Cuba,' because everyone wants that. The issue is reality," he stated.
He posed unanswered questions: who will grant the contracts, who will rebuild the aqueduct, how will political parties be financed, who will control radio and television stations. On this last point, he was adamant: "Who are the radio and television stations that can, in real life, either destroy and crush an individual or highlight another? Who will manage those budgets? That's the problem."
Rodiles' analysis aligns with a growing debate about the fragmentation of the Cuban opposition in exile, which some analysts have described as a strategic gift to the regime.
Rodiles did not absolve the U.S. government of responsibility: "The American government, all previous administrations, including Trump's, have also been part of the problem because they have controlled the budgets of these institutions and have created conflicts."
His final warning encapsulates the tone of his entire intervention: "I think it's time for some grounding and clear discussion, which for some reason we don't want to have. We don't want to have it, Tania. And my question is: What are we waiting for? To have it the day Castroism falls and we land in that country that's in pieces?"
Cuban Opposition and Transition Challenges
What does Antonio Rodiles say about the current state of Cuban society?
Antonio Rodiles highlights that Cuban society is not "living" but merely "surviving" and that this extreme hardship has left a deep impact that any transition process must address seriously.
What historical example does Rodiles use to illustrate the challenges of governing in crisis conditions?
Rodiles references Tomás Estrada Palma, the first president of Cuba, who asked for U.S. military intervention during the 1906 crisis, highlighting the greater challenges faced by today's Cuba.
What does Rodiles think about the emergence of new political movements like the PLOC?
Rodiles acknowledges the right to organize but questions the feasibility of new political movements like the PLOC, emphasizing the need for financial backing to sustain such initiatives.
What structural issue does Rodiles identify beyond the lack of funding?
Rodiles points to the absence of concrete planning for Cuba's reconstruction as a deeper structural problem that needs to be addressed.