Rubén Cortés, who previously led the Mexican newspaper La Razón, dismisses the possibility of military intervention in Cuba and instead advocates for a negotiated resolution. He shared this viewpoint during an appearance on CiberCuba's program, "Transition in Cuba," earlier this week. Shortly thereafter, President Trump expressed optimism at the White House about the potential for a diplomatic agreement with the Cuban regime.
Cortés suggests that a negotiated solution is the most plausible path for Cuba, urging patience until November. He further commented that without change on the island, "Marco Rubio will continue as Secretary of State," while implying a different outcome for María Elvira Salazar.
The Political Cost of Sanctions
In an interview with Tania Costa, Cortés emphasized that any sanctions cutting off remittances and shipments from Miami to Cuba would have direct political repercussions for Cuban-American congress members, particularly María Elvira Salazar. These voters are financially supporting their families on the island.
“Let's not mince words,” Cortés stated. “Venezuela no longer fuels Cuba. Tourism no longer fuels Cuba. Miami fuels Cuba.” He highlighted Florida's role as an economic lifeline for the Cuban dictatorship, within a broader discussion on Iran and Russia's weapons dealings with the regime.
A Lifeline from Miami
Through vivid descriptions, Cortés portrayed the scene at airports, with "mountains of blue-wrapped bundles" being transported by travelers on flights from Miami to Cuba. He noted that some individuals make the trip twice daily, bringing goods such as cars, solar panels, televisions, and medicines from Miami to the Mariel port.
“Day-to-day necessities are solved from Miami,” Cortés stressed, referencing the Cuban people on the island. He argued that these "personal packages," as described by a Cuban official to indicate their non-commercial nature, sustain millions of Cubans who refrain from protesting due to their reliance on these packages. The surplus is sold to those without relatives in Miami, creating an informal market essential to the island’s daily life.
The Impact of Informal Channels
This informal network has gained importance since Western Union indefinitely halted its services for U.S.-Cuba money transfers in February 2025, following Trump administration sanctions against Orbit S.A. Formal remittances have plummeted by 70% from 2019, dropping from $3.716 billion to $1.113 billion in 2024. Yet, 93% of funds now flow through informal channels, with remittances comprising 8.3% of Cuba's GDP, supporting nearly 70% of the population.
Cortés points out the political contradiction: imposing sanctions that hinder those sending "aspirin, coffee, and medicine to their grandmother" will likely deter voters from supporting pressure measures against Cuba.
“María Elvira (Salazar) relies on the votes of those Cubans who daily send a little coffee and medicine to their grandmother,” Cortés stated.
He underscored the electoral stakes, “The vote of María Elvira, Carlos Jiménez, Díaz-Balart... matters in Washington. You start losing here and there."
Changing Dynamics Among Miami's Cuban Voters
Cortés highlighted the evolving nature of Miami's Cuban vote, noting it is no longer monolithic. “I don't see that Miami vote organized. I don't see them on the streets demanding ‘let's protest now, let Cuba fall.’ Everyone is on the sidelines, sipping coffee, waiting to see Marco Rubio's next move.”
He attributed these shifts to changing migration patterns. “The old guard is passing away. I'm 62, and I left Cuba in '95. So much has changed, the Cubans have changed significantly.”
Understanding Cuba's Economic and Political Challenges
What is the current economic support structure for Cuba?
Cuba's economy heavily relies on informal remittances and shipments from Miami, providing daily necessities and sustaining a significant portion of the population.
How do political dynamics in Miami affect Cuban policy?
Cuban-American politicians in Miami face political challenges when advocating for sanctions, as many of their constituents send essential goods and remittances to families in Cuba, complicating efforts to apply pressure on the Cuban regime.
Why does Rubén Cortés believe a negotiated solution is necessary for Cuba?
Cortés argues that a military intervention is unlikely and that negotiations offer the most feasible path forward for achieving change in Cuba, especially considering the complex political and economic ties with Miami.