Cuba's Double Strategy: Revolutionary Propaganda and Secret Talks with Washington

The Cuban government is attempting to juggle two conflicting strategies: maintaining a confrontational rhetoric against the United States while secretly engaging in discussions with Washington to prevent a deeper collapse on the island.

This is the main observation of Cuban historian and essayist Rafael Rojas in an analysis published in El País, where he outlines the precarious political and economic situation under the leadership of Miguel Díaz-Canel.

“Resist the empire while negotiating with the empire. The Cuban government is balancing these two simultaneous agendas during a time of uncertainty and unpredictability, where the island's future hangs between collapse and transition,” Rojas wrote.

Historical Crisis and Social Unrest

Havana is grappling with a crisis of historic proportions, marked by widespread blackouts, fuel shortages, economic decline, and growing social unrest. According to Rojas, this scenario has forced the regime to seek understanding with the Trump administration through discreet channels while maintaining its revolutionary discourse publicly.

Rojas argues that the crisis has both structural and situational dimensions. The structural aspect is linked to the exhaustion of Cuba's economic model, while the situational issues stem from the energy collapse following disruptions in oil supplies from Venezuela and Mexico.

Economic Downturn and Diplomatic Efforts

Cuba's economy has been shrinking for several years, with tourism plummeting over 50% in the last decade, and massive emigration drastically reducing the island's population. This is compounded by increasingly frequent protests over blackouts and deteriorating living conditions.

In this context, secret diplomacy has gained prominence. Rojas highlights the ongoing meetings between delegations from both governments in the Caribbean and Havana, focusing on migration cooperation, regional security, and Caribbean stability.

Recently, the visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Havana for discussions with high-ranking Cuban officials was revealed. Simultaneously, Washington proposed $100 million in humanitarian aid for fuel, food, and medicine, which the Cuban government expressed willingness to consider.

Political Limits and Fragility

Nevertheless, the regime is keen to establish boundaries. Deputy Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío stated that the Cuban political system is "non-negotiable," while Díaz-Canel warned that "crossing red lines will halt negotiations."

For the historian, this contradiction underscores the fragility of the current moment: a government needing to ease economic and energy pressures but fearing that any opening could jeopardize its political control.