The Trump administration is reportedly weighing the option of employing a strategy against Cuba akin to the one used against Nicolás Maduro's regime in Venezuela. This revelation comes from an extensive report by the New York Times on Thursday, which details the increasing pressure from the United States on Havana.
According to the newspaper, senior U.S. officials are discussing the possibility of replicating aspects of the so-called "Venezuela playbook" on the island. This playbook refers to the military and judicial operations that culminated in Maduro’s capture in Caracas in early 2026.
While the publication clarifies that there are no immediate signs of action against Cuba, it notes that some factions within the White House wish to keep this option available.
Rising Tensions and Strategic Moves
The report emerges amid escalating tensions between Washington and Havana, highlighted by new sanctions, energy pressure, military surveillance flights around the island, and a recent visit to Cuba by CIA Director John Ratcliffe.
According to the NYT, U.S. officials have privately discussed a potential increase in military forces in the region, while military and intelligence agencies have intensified their monitoring activities over Cuban territory.
Potential Legal Actions and Political Implications
The most sensitive component could be a potential federal indictment against Raúl Castro, who is now 94 years old. The NYT reports that federal prosecutors in Miami are assembling a case that might involve charges related to drug trafficking or the 1996 downing of the Brothers to the Rescue aircraft, which resulted in four fatalities.
This unannounced indictment could carry substantial political and symbolic weight. The newspaper suggests there is a belief within the U.S. government that a legal action against the historical leader of the Cuban regime would intensify internal pressure on Havana's leadership.
Psychological and Political Strategies
Experts cited by the NYT argue that the threat of a Venezuelan-style operation could serve more as a psychological and political tool than an immediate military plan. "The aim is to apply pressure and force the Cuban government to make concessions," stated William LeoGrande, a specialist in U.S.-Cuba relations, noting that historically, the Cuban regime is resistant to backing down under threats.
Another analyst mentioned, Frank Mora, a former Pentagon official and ex-ambassador to the OAS, deemed a direct military action against Raúl Castro unlikely due to the international political ramifications of acting against an elderly and ailing leader.
Nevertheless, the report emphasizes that Trump’s pressure strategy towards Cuba seems to be entering a more aggressive phase, aimed at accelerating internal political changes on the island.
FAQs on U.S. Strategy Towards Cuba
What is the "Venezuela Model" mentioned in relation to Cuba?
The "Venezuela Model" refers to the combination of military and judicial strategies used by the U.S. to apply pressure on Nicolás Maduro's regime in Venezuela, which included military operations and legal actions.
Why might the U.S. consider legal actions against Raúl Castro?
Legal actions against Raúl Castro could involve charges related to drug trafficking or past incidents, such as the 1996 downing of the Brothers to the Rescue aircraft. Such actions are considered for their potential political and symbolic impact on the Cuban leadership.