Robert Gates, the former CIA director, issued a stark warning on Friday about the national security threat that Cuba poses to the United States. Rather than a military threat, Gates cautioned that the real risk lies in the potential collapse of the Cuban regime, which could trigger a mass migration similar to the 1980 Mariel boatlift.
Gates made these remarks during an interview on CBS's Face the Nation, hosted by Margaret Brennan. His comments coincided with a significant event—the historic visit to Havana by current CIA Director John Ratcliffe.
"The greatest danger is facing another Mariel-like evacuation from Cuba, with tens of thousands of desperate Cubans heading to the United States," Gates asserted.
During his visit, Ratcliffe met with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo" and the grandson of Raúl Castro, as well as with Interior Minister Lázaro Álvarez Casas and Ramón Romero Curbelo, head of the Intelligence Directorate of MININT.
This visit, requested by Washington and sanctioned by the so-called "Direction of the Revolution," was confirmed in an official statement by the Communist Party of Cuba. Ratcliffe conveyed a conditional message: the United States would be open to engaging on economic and security issues if Cuba makes "fundamental changes" and ceases to be a haven for adversaries in the Western Hemisphere.
Gates acknowledged Cuba's historical role in regional security, especially through its security forces in Venezuela, which formed the personal protection ring around Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
"He didn't trust his own people," Gates explained about Maduro's reliance on Cuban personnel for personal security.
The former official admitted Cuba's long-standing involvement in activities impacting U.S. national security and interests through its participation in other countries. However, he dismissed the notion of a direct and imminent threat to the United States.
"Are they an imminent threat to the United States? Except in these, let's say, peripheral ways, I believe the main threat is, frankly, collapse," Gates maintained.
When Brennan pointed out that the Trump administration claims its goal is to prevent such a collapse, Gates did not dispute this stance.
The historical reference Gates invokes is the Mariel exodus: between April and October 1980, more than 125,000 Cubans fled to the United States in boats from the port of Mariel, following Fidel Castro's decree to open the port.
Gates' warning carries significant weight amid the scale of the current Cuban exodus: since 2022, over 850,000 Cubans have left the island, marking the largest migratory wave in the country's recent history.
In 2025, Cuban asylum applications in Brazil exceeded 41,900, an 88% increase compared to the previous year, making Cubans the leading nationality seeking asylum in that country, according to the Observatory of Migrations.
The interview with Gates comes at a time when the Trump administration is pursuing a policy of maximum pressure on the Cuban regime, while also exploring direct negotiation channels through the CIA, a combination analysts describe as unusual in the history of U.S.-Cuba relations.
Cuba's Potential for a Mariel-Style Crisis
What is the main security threat Cuba poses to the United States according to Robert Gates?
Robert Gates identifies the potential collapse of the Cuban regime, leading to a mass migration similar to the 1980 Mariel boatlift, as the primary national security threat.
How is the United States willing to engage with Cuba?
The United States is open to economic and security engagements with Cuba, provided that Cuba implements fundamental changes and ceases to be a safe haven for its adversaries.
What historical event is referenced as a warning for potential future migration from Cuba?
The Mariel boatlift of 1980, where over 125,000 Cubans fled to the United States, serves as a historical reference for the potential scale of future mass migrations from Cuba.