Cuban political analyst José Manuel González Rubines cautioned on Thursday that the recent protests erupting in various parts of Cuba are merely the beginning of what promises to be an extremely challenging summer. He foresees the nation heading towards months of social unrest with no apparent institutional solutions in sight.
In a Facebook video over five minutes long, González Rubines—who is a journalist, researcher, and co-director of the think tank Cuba x Cuba—examined the demonstrations that occurred on May 13 and 14. These protests spread across numerous Havana neighborhoods, including Santos Suárez, Lawton, Luyanó, Marianao, Playa, Nuevo Vedado, Diez de Octubre, Guanabacoa, and San Miguel del Padrón.
To emphasize the seriousness of the situation, the analyst referenced a historical quote: "It's no coincidence that Máximo Gómez used to say his best generals were June, July, and August. Well, it's May, and those generals haven't even arrived, yet the unrest has already begun."
González Rubines is particularly concerned not with the scale of the protests but with their nature. "What is most alarming about these 2026 protests is the emergence of violent episodes, which were largely absent during the 11J protests and subsequent mobilizations," he stated.
Protesters have been burning debris and throwing stones—actions that, according to the analyst, are not spontaneous but rather a cumulative response to years of institutionalized repression. "This violence is not random; it is a reaction to the systemic violence the regime has inflicted on Cubans' lives," he explained, citing recent videos showing Ministry of Interior agents assaulting demonstrators in Playa, including individuals not engaged in violent acts.
Currently residing in Spain, the analyst identified three factors that make the current spiral of unrest especially dangerous: the lack of institutional mechanisms to channel discontent, the absence of political strategies to reverse the conditions causing it, and the closure of historical migration routes. "This time, none of those exits seem to be available," he warned. Nicaragua shut its borders to Cuban migrants without visas on February 8, 2026, cutting off a major exit route, while Cuba lost over a million residents between 2021 and 2025.
The immediate trigger of the protests is an unprecedented electrical crisis. On May 13, the Electric Union reported a deficit of 2,113 MW, with the nighttime forecast the following day reaching a deficit of 2,204 MW, against just 976 MW available. Energy and Mines Minister Vicente de la O Levy admitted that the situation is "acute, critical, and extremely tense," with power outages lasting up to 22 hours daily in some Havana circuits, and Cuba not receiving a single fuel shipment from December 2025 to late March 2026.
Social discontent has been escalating since the beginning of the year. The Cuban Conflict Observatory recorded 1,245 protests, complaints, and expressions of dissatisfaction in March 2026—the highest monthly tally since the 11J of 2021—and 1,133 in April, a 29.5% increase over the same month in 2025. There are also reports that the regime has distributed weapons to various parts of the country, including small towns, preparing to respond forcefully to new protests. The U.S. Embassy in Havana issued a security alert on Friday due to the power outages and demonstrations, amidst widespread internet blackouts during the protests.
González Rubines concluded his analysis with a warning that encapsulates Cuba's current predicament: "These are just the rumblings of a storm that has yet to fully arrive."
Understanding Cuba's Current Crisis
What factors are contributing to the current unrest in Cuba?
The unrest is driven by a combination of factors, including a severe electrical crisis, lack of institutional mechanisms to address discontent, absence of effective political strategies, and the closure of traditional migration routes.
How has the closure of migration routes impacted the situation in Cuba?
The closure of migration routes, particularly Nicaragua's decision to shut its borders to Cuban migrants without visas, has eliminated a critical escape route for many Cubans, intensifying the sense of entrapment and contributing to social unrest.