Cuban Economist Pedro Monreal Criticizes Missed Opportunity for Economic Reforms

On Monday, Cuban economist Pedro Monreal published a powerful analysis on his Facebook page "El Estado como tal," arguing that Cuba has missed a historic opportunity to emulate the successful economic reforms of China and Vietnam. He warns that the current crisis might be leading to a "controlled collapse."

"Cuba has missed the train of Chinese and Vietnamese reforms, and there is no evidence that conditions currently exist to replicate the essential framework and economic success of those 'controlled' reforms," Monreal stated.

Obstacles to Reform in the Cuban Context

Monreal outlines the unique challenges within the Cuban environment that make such a path unfeasible: a focus on political control over economic efficiency, a bureaucratic approach to management, U.S. sanctions, high risks for investors, and distrust from the Cuban diaspora.

According to Monreal, a key factor in the success of China and Vietnam was the availability of foreign currency reserves and international integration, which involved trade openness, attracting foreign investment, and normalizing diplomatic relations.

The Role of International Engagement

"Reforms would not have been feasible without openness. Foreign currency allowed for the import of machinery and know-how, while international engagement provided access to markets and capital," he emphasized.

The economist highlights that this availability of foreign currency and international integration was not just a chronological prerequisite but a functional necessity: "Internal reforms (decentralization, incentives) relied on external leverage to expand and sustain."

Challenges in Replicating the Chinese-Vietnamese Model

To replicate the Chinese-Vietnamese model in Cuba, Monreal suggests it would require "a combination of internal political will to replace the current economic model and favorable external economic and geopolitical conditions for the Cuban government, which appear unlikely in the short term."

The analysis comes amid a rapid economic downturn. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts a 7.2% decline in Cuba's GDP by 2026, marking a 23% contraction since 2019. Monreal himself has warned that the decline could exceed 15%.

This projection starkly contrasts with the regime's outlook: Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz has presented a +1% GDP growth for 2026 as a "compass" to revitalize the economy, a figure disputed by international and independent bodies.

Contrasts with Government Promises

Monreal's diagnosis also contrasts with the promises of Díaz-Canel, who claimed in October 2021 that Cuba would develop an economic model "better than that of China and Vietnam," a promise that never materialized.

The economic reforms in China—initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1978—and in Vietnam—known as Đổi Mới since 1986—transformed planned economies into export powerhouses under a single-party system. China multiplied its GDP by ten over four decades; Vietnam increased its GDP per capita from around $230 in 1986 to approximately $4,300 in 2024, according to the World Bank.

Signs of Economic Collapse

In recent analyses, Monreal has highlighted the collapse of key productive sectors, such as bus production, which fell from 473 units in 2019 to 12 projected in 2026, a 97.5% reduction, or pork production, which plummeted 95.2% between 2017 and 2023.

"The risk today for the Cuban government is not so much having lost the chance to attempt a Chinese-Vietnamese style 'controlled' reform, but that the current economic crisis is turning into a 'controlled' collapse," Monreal warned, marking his most severe caution about the direction of the Cuban economy.