The world's leading meteorological agencies are cautioning that the upcoming El Niño event in 2026 could be the strongest ever recorded, potentially leading to unprecedented climate impacts in modern history.
This month, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are rising swiftly, signaling a "clear shift" towards the development of the phenomenon between May and July 2026.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of climate prediction at the WMO, expressed a high level of confidence in the onset of El Niño, which is expected to intensify further in the following months.
"I believe we will witness weather events that we've never seen before in modern history," warned Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist at WFLA-TV in Tampa.
Potential for Unprecedented Weather Patterns
The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts projects ocean temperature anomalies of up to 3.3°C in the equatorial Pacific, surpassing the 2.6°C record set during the 2015-2016 event, which was previously the most intense on record.
The most extreme occurrences are referred to as "super El Niños."
Daniel Swain, a climatologist at the California Institute for Water Resources, noted that the volume and intensity of warm subsurface water anomalies are "roughly as large as those observed in historical records," though a super El Niño is not guaranteed.
"There is potential for something truly remarkable to occur," Swain added.
Impact on Global and Regional Climates
If the Pacific releases significant heat, it amplifies the climate system and wreaks havoc, explained Berardelli: more intense heatwaves, exacerbated droughts in some areas, and increased moisture in the air leading to more severe flooding.
In the United States, significant heatwaves are anticipated this summer, alongside more frequent thunderstorms in the Southwest.
In the Caribbean and Cuba, the phenomenon is expected to bring drier-than-normal conditions during the northern summer, with fewer tropical systems in the Atlantic due to increased wind shear.
The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) predicted last Wednesday a less active hurricane season, forecasting 11 tropical cyclones, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, with a 40% chance of impacting the island.
Colorado State University also forecasted in April a below-average hurricane season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
Amazon and Cuban Weather Concerns
In the Amazon, where nearly 40% of the forest area is already degraded by fires, logging, and drought, the risk of new droughts and massive fires could be exacerbated by a strong El Niño.
The summer of 2026 in Cuba is shaping up to be hotter than usual with intense rainfall, aligning with global projections of the phenomenon's impact on the region.
Temperatures in Cuba are already expected to be above normal in May, according to INSMET, partly due to the potential early influence of El Niño.
Michael Mann, a climatologist at the University of Pennsylvania, cautioned that while El Niño raises global temperatures for one or two years, the real concern should be the long-term warming trend, "which will continue as long as people keep burning fossil fuels."
Swain was more direct about the immediate horizon: "Right now, all indicators point to next year being a pretty wild year from a global climate perspective."
Understanding the 2026 El Niño Phenomenon
What is El Niño and why is it significant?
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It significantly impacts global weather patterns, causing extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall.
How might El Niño affect the United States in 2026?
The United States could see significant heatwaves and more frequent thunderstorms, particularly in the Southwest, as a result of the 2026 El Niño.
What impact will El Niño have on Cuba and the Caribbean?
In Cuba and the Caribbean, El Niño is expected to bring drier-than-normal conditions and fewer tropical systems in the Atlantic, due to increased wind shear.