Carolina Barrero, the president and CEO of Citizenship and Freedom, cautioned this week that the collapse of the Cuban regime won't automatically result in an established democracy. She emphasized the need to shield citizens from potential populism and any form of emerging authoritarianism following the regime's downfall.
"The end of the dictatorship is near, but that doesn't ensure we can immediately establish a democracy," Barrero stated in a video shared on her social media. "We must enhance our democratic culture to protect ourselves from any populist efforts that may arise."
Using the metaphor of the "Pied Piper of Hamelin," the activist warned about charismatic leaders who might manipulate citizens lacking sufficient civic education: "So that no tyrant, storyteller, or Pied Piper of Hamelin can deceive any of us, and so we can make informed decisions about what we want for Cuba as a nation, as a people, as citizens."
Initiatives for Democratic Transition
Citizenship and Freedom was established in 2023 and publicly introduced on July 7, 2024, on the eve of the third anniversary of the 11J protests. Its mission is to defend the rights to association, peaceful assembly, and political participation, focusing on both immediate resistance to the regime and long-term democratic cultural development.
Barrero has voiced these concerns on international platforms. In March 2025, she addressed the UN in New York during the 69th session of the Commission on the Status of Women, describing Cuba as a "failed state" and criticizing the Federation of Cuban Women for not representing Cuban women.
In April 2026, Amelia Calzadilla, the program coordinator for Citizenship and Freedom, appeared before the Basque Parliament to denounce political prisoners and systematic repression.
International Pressure and Sanctions
Barrero's warning comes amid heightened pressure from Washington on Havana. Since January 2025, the Trump administration has imposed more than 240 sanctions against the regime.
On May 1, Trump signed Executive Order 14404, expanding sanctions with extraterritorial reach. This Thursday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced direct sanctions against GAESA and its CEO, labeling the military conglomerate as "the heart of Cuba's kleptocratic communist system."
Comparative Context: Lessons from Venezuela
This scenario feeds the perception that the regime's end might be near, but the Venezuelan case serves as a stark warning. After Nicolás Maduro was captured on January 3, 2026, Venezuela hasn't achieved a clean democratic transition. According to El País, political detentions persist, and the structure of Chavismo remains active under Delcy Rodríguez, with at least 87 new political arrests since then.
Other Cuban civil society platforms have also developed proposals for the "day after." The document "Cuba Libre: Civic Commitment to Transition to Democracy," coordinated by Archivo Cuba in August 2022, suggests dismantling repressive organs and civil resistance until the regime falls.
The "Liberation Agreement for Cuba," publicly acknowledged in April 2026, outlines a three-phase roadmap: liberation, stabilization, and democratization, with internationally supervised free elections.
These initiatives, along with the efforts of Citizenship and Freedom, indicate a growing activation and maturity of Cuban civil society both in the diaspora and on the island. "Let it be the citizens who ultimately decide with the information and resources needed to shield themselves against any tales," Barrero concluded.
Understanding the Path to Democracy in Cuba
What is Citizenship and Freedom's role in Cuba's future?
Citizenship and Freedom aims to defend civic rights and promote a democratic culture in Cuba, focusing on both immediate resistance and long-term democratic development.
How does the international community view the situation in Cuba?
The international community, particularly the United States, exerts pressure through sanctions, aiming to weaken the Cuban regime and encourage democratic transitions.
What lessons can be learned from Venezuela's transition?
Venezuela's experience highlights the challenges of achieving a clean democratic transition, as political detentions and the persistence of old regimes can hinder progress.