Venezuelan journalist and researcher Andrés Cañizález speculates that Nicolás Maduro might regret dismissing the negotiated exit deals proposed by the Trump administration. He draws a direct comparison between Venezuela's past pressures and the current challenges facing Cuba.
In a conversation with Tania Costa for CiberCuba, Cañizález pointed out that Maduro's critical mistake was underestimating Trump's willingness to employ military force. "Maduro believed that Trump wouldn't actually press the button to deploy military forces to Venezuela; he thought Trump's actions were just rhetoric," the analyst explained.
According to Cañizález, this misjudgment cost Maduro at least two clear opportunities to leave power under favorable terms. "Trump reached out to Maduro twice, giving him a chance to exit power, potentially securing a luxurious exile, maybe in Russia or another country," Cañizález elaborated.
Instead, Maduro was apprehended on January 3, 2026, by U.S. special forces during Operation Absolute Resolution and transported to New York to face federal narcotics charges. Subsequently, Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as Venezuela's president by the National Assembly, following orders from the Supreme Court.
Cañizález recalls that Trump disclosed in October 2025 that Maduro had offered "everything" — including access to oil, gold, and reversing contracts with China, Iran, and Russia — to avoid military conflict. However, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil was firm: "The president will not negotiate his departure."
U.S. Pressure: A Parallel in Cuba
Cañizález extends this timeline to Cuba. U.S. naval operations against Venezuela began in August 2025, but the pressure escalated in October with aerial deployments. "Naval operations started in August, but the real pressure was felt from October when aerial deployments began, indicating that the U.S. wasn't staging such a broad deployment without expecting some victory or reward," Cañizález noted.
Since January 2026, Cuba has been under similar pressure for less than five months, with tangible signs emerging: armed drones and artificial intelligence in military exercises near the island, and the FLEX2026 exercise conducted from April 24 to 30 in Key West. "In Cuba, the deployment of drones is a wake-up call," Cañizález warned.
Regarding the state of negotiations between Washington and Havana, the analyst acknowledges the uncertainty: "It's challenging to know because we lack the information to assess how advanced these talks are or their focal points."
Nonetheless, Cañizález is clear about the direction of events. "After what happened in Venezuela in January, coupled with the perceived failure of the U.S. in Iran, the Cuban issue gains significant importance for the Trump administration," he asserted.
The analyst concludes with a direct message to the regime in Havana: "I see it as a scenario that could accelerate to find a resolution to what the U.S. has been shaping over several months to achieve regime change in Cuba."
Understanding U.S. Pressure on Cuba and Venezuela
Why might Maduro regret not accepting Trump's offer?
Maduro might regret not accepting Trump's offer because it could have allowed him to leave power under favorable conditions, potentially securing a safe exile and avoiding the legal troubles he currently faces in the United States.
What parallels are drawn between Venezuela and Cuba in terms of U.S. pressure?
The parallels drawn between Venezuela and Cuba involve the U.S. military and diplomatic pressure, including naval and aerial operations aimed at regime change. Both countries have faced significant attention from U.S. forces, signaling a strategic focus on altering their political regimes.