Venezuelan journalist and researcher Andrés Cañizález has expressed concerns that Cuba is now facing a crisis even more severe than the so-called "Special Period" of the 1990s. In a discussion with Tania Costa, he delved into the worsening humanitarian conditions on the island and speculated on the potential inevitability of U.S. military intervention.
The Legacy of the Special Period
Cañizález has a unique insight into the events of the 1990s, having arrived in Cuba at the very moment Fidel Castro officially declared the Special Period in Time of Peace. He worked for Prensa Latina and the Mexican news agency Notimex during that time. "I landed in Cuba on September 28 or 30, 1990, the day Castro made the announcement," he recalled.
Current Crisis Compared to the Past
Drawing from his firsthand experience, Cañizález offers a stark assessment of the current situation. "Today, the conditions are far worse, with a deepening humanitarian crisis that remains unresolved and continues to deteriorate," he stated. He argues that the economic issues from the 1990s were never truly addressed, only temporarily alleviated by Venezuelan oil support.
However, this relief ended abruptly in January 2026 with the capture of Nicolás Maduro, cutting off 25,000 to 35,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil daily. Moreover, Trump's Executive Order 14380 threatens tariffs on countries selling oil to Cuba, slashing fuel supplies by roughly 90%, though Russia has managed to send a free oil shipment to the island.
Grim Realities on the Island
The result is a nation plagued by power outages lasting up to 20 or 30 hours at a stretch, an electricity deficit of 1,885 megawatts, and 89% of the population living in extreme poverty. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) predicts a Cuban GDP contraction of -6.5% for 2026, the worst in Latin America.
The healthcare system is in shambles, with 96,000 surgeries delayed, including 11,000 for children. Facilities are crumbling, with scarce medical supplies and insufficient staff, raising serious hygiene concerns.
U.S. Role in the Future of Cuba
Cañizález believes the current scenario is undoubtedly more tragic than the Special Period. "It's much more painful to witness what's happening in Cuba now," he remarked.
Regarding U.S. involvement, he sees some form of intervention as unavoidable. "I think it is indeed inevitable that the United States will intervene in some capacity," he said, noting Marco Rubio's strategic mindset and experience with Venezuela as potentially beneficial for dealing with Cuba.
This view aligns with reports of clandestine meetings between Rubio's team and Cuban representatives, including Raul Castro's grandson, amidst Trump's maximum pressure strategy on Havana.
Rubio has recently cautioned that Cuba's collapse could become a regional issue. Washington is closely monitoring the Cuban crisis and, as part of Secretary of State's agenda during a visit to the Vatican, there is a focus on the humanitarian aid the U.S. has sent to the island, distributed through the Church, bypassing the regime.
Key Insights into Cuba's Crisis
Why does Andrés Cañizález believe the current crisis in Cuba is worse than the 1990s?
Cañizález argues that the humanitarian crisis is deeper and unresolved, with economic issues from the 1990s never properly addressed, only temporarily alleviated by Venezuelan oil.
What significant events have worsened Cuba's economic situation?
The capture of Nicolás Maduro in 2026 halted Venezuelan oil support, and Trump's Executive Order 14380 cut off 90% of fuel supplies, exacerbating the crisis.
What are the current power and poverty conditions in Cuba?
Cuba is experiencing power outages lasting up to 30 hours and has an electricity deficit of 1,885 megawatts, with 89% of the population in extreme poverty.
What is Marco Rubio's role in the context of the Cuban crisis?
Marco Rubio is seen as a strategic thinker whose experience with Venezuela may aid in addressing the Cuban crisis, aligning with secret negotiations amidst U.S. pressure on Havana.