The Cuban regime currently owes Brazil an outstanding debt of $676 million for infrastructure projects financed by the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES), with the Brazilian government acknowledging it has no expectation of retrieving that money, according to CNN Brazil.
Brazil's Ministry of Finance delivered a statement to the news channel, presenting a grim outlook: "There is no expectation for the regularization of these payments," the ministry stated, adding that Brazil continues to pursue the debt through bilateral negotiations and international forums, yet without achieving any tangible results.
The Mariel Port Project: A Financial Quagmire
The chief project funded in Cuba was the Mariel Port, constructed by Odebrecht in partnership with the Business Administration Group (GAESA), a conglomerate managed by the Cuban Armed Forces.
Contracts were signed between 2009 and 2013 amounting to $641 million, while the total project cost is estimated to range from $682 million to $800 million.
When Cuba ceased payments, the BNDES invoked the Export Guarantee Fund, an instrument that covered the shortfall and effectively transferred the loss to Brazilian taxpayers.
The collateral accepted by the bank for the Mariel Port loan was a warning sign itself: the revenues from Cuba's cigar industry, a decision later deemed "fragile" and inadequate for the loan's magnitude by Brazil's Federal Court of Accounts.
A History of Default and Unrealized Promises
Cuba's history of default is well-documented. In October 2018, the Cuban government committed to settling its debt with Brazil, yet merely two months later, part of that debt went into default. By December 2019, Gustavo Montezano, then-president of the BNDES, warned that Cuba's payment interruptions would lead to substantial losses for the institution.
In February 2023, President Lula da Silva expressed optimism: "I am certain that during our government these countries will pay because they are all friendly nations to Brazil and will surely repay the debt they owe the BNDES," he said in reference to Cuba and Venezuela. However, three years later, his own Ministry of Finance contradicts that optimism.
Legislative Developments and Expert Opinions
The issue resurfaced when Lula enacted Law 15.359/2026 on March 24, renewing BNDES financing for the export of engineering services and allowing Brazilian construction firms to undertake large projects abroad once again.
The law prohibits new deals with delinquent nations and mandates the bank to release detailed information on its loans, but it does not address the existing debts.
Experts consulted by CNN Brazil are emphatic: "It is certainly unwise to execute projects in countries that lack the capability to repay those loans," one expert warned, noting that it is unlikely Cuba or Venezuela will fulfill their obligations anytime soon and that the funds should be considered lost.
Dire Economic Conditions in Cuba
The financial state of the Cuban dictatorship renders any future payments improbable. The Island's public debt is projected to reach 108.8% of GDP by 2024, coupled with an inflation rate of 42% and a fiscal deficit of 11% of GDP.
Economist Pavel Vidal Alejandro, a former official at the Central Bank of Cuba, succinctly summed up the situation: "The Cuban state will never be fully solvent as long as it continues to preserve and subsidize the monopoly of an inefficient state business sector."
Cuba is not alone on the delinquent list.
Venezuela owes Brazil over $1.2 billion for projects such as the Caracas and Los Teques metros and the National Steelworks, all executed by Brazilian construction companies with BNDES financing.
Understanding Cuba's Debt Crisis
What is the current status of Cuba's debt to Brazil?
Cuba owes Brazil $676 million for infrastructure projects, with little expectation of repayment according to the Brazilian government.
Why is the Mariel Port project significant in this debt issue?
The Mariel Port was a major project funded by BNDES and constructed by Odebrecht in Cuba, now a focal point of the unpaid debt due to its substantial cost and financial implications.
How has Cuba's financial situation affected its ability to repay debts?
Cuba's economic instability, marked by high public debt, inflation, and fiscal deficit, severely limits its capacity to meet debt obligations.