The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) has released its official forecast for the 2026 hurricane season in the North Atlantic. The report anticipates a "less active" season with a reduced intensity, predicting a total of 11 tropical cyclones across the entire basin.
Compiled by INSMET's Forecast Center and Climate Center, the document indicates that the "key oceanic and atmospheric conditions governing tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea suggest the development of a below-average hurricane season."
Out of the 11 predicted cyclones, five are expected to reach hurricane status, with two potentially becoming major hurricanes.
Expected Cyclone Distribution
The forecast estimates eight cyclones in the Atlantic, two in the Caribbean, and one in the Gulf of Mexico. For Cuba, INSMET assesses a moderate risk, with a 40% chance of a hurricane affecting the island—slightly above the historical climatological risk of 35% for the country.
Even more concerning is the 75% likelihood that a tropical storm could impact the island.
Influence of El Niño on the 2026 Season
The forecast is significantly influenced by the increasing probability of an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event developing in June or July, potentially lasting until the end of 2026. INSMET warns that "a mild ENSO event would not limit hurricane activity in the Atlantic region, but moderate or strong events tend to decrease it." Currently, there is a possibility that this ENSO event could be moderate or stronger.
This moderate forecast stands in stark contrast to the highly active 2025 hurricane season, which reached 105% of the historical average. That year was marked by Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall in eastern Cuba on October 29, 2025, as a category three storm with sustained winds of 195 km/h, becoming the third most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record.
Melissa caused damage to over 116,000 homes in eastern Cuba, affecting more than 3.5 million residents in the provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, Granma, and Guantánamo.
Comparisons and Future Predictions
INSMET's 2026 forecast aligns broadly with projections from Colorado State University (CSU), which in April predicted 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, equivalent to 75% of an average season from 1991-2020.
The institute also noted that summer 2026 in Cuba is expected to bring above-average heat and rainfall close to historical norms, adding pressure on a population still recovering from the devastation caused by Melissa. INSMET clarified that their 2025 hurricane season forecast, released in May of that year, estimated 15 tropical cyclones and eight hurricanes, with a 50% hurricane probability for Cuba—figures that were significantly surpassed.
INSMET plans to release an updated forecast for the 2026 North Atlantic hurricane activity in August.
Key Questions About Cuba's 2026 Hurricane Season
How many tropical cyclones are expected in the 2026 season?
The 2026 season is expected to have 11 tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin.
What is the probability of a hurricane affecting Cuba in 2026?
There is a 40% chance that at least one hurricane will impact Cuba in 2026.
How might El Niño influence the hurricane season?
El Niño could lead to a decrease in hurricane activity if it develops into a moderate or strong event.