Mexican-based Cuban analyst, Rubén Cortés, has stirred controversy with his recent assertion: while the macro sanctions signed by Trump may pinch the pockets of Cuban leaders, the real lifeline of the regime is not found in Moscow or Beijing, but rather in Miami.
"Miami keeps the Cuban system afloat day in and day out. The true lifeline for the Cuban regime is Miami," stated Cortés during an interview with Tania Costa for CiberCuba.
He highlighted the context of an executive order signed by Trump on May 1, which significantly expands sanctions against the dictatorship, including for the first time, secondary measures against foreign companies and banks.
The Economic Lifelines of Cuba
According to Cortés, since 2000, Cuba has relied on three successive economic lifelines. The first was Venezuela, which provided fuel until that support collapsed in January.
The second was tourism, which also fell apart following the COVID pandemic and the subsequent decline in service quality, coupled with escalating tensions with the United States in the current geopolitical climate.
"No one is going to visit Cuba now, a country marked as a potential intervention target at any moment," he elaborated.
The third and currently robust lifeline for the Cuban regime is the Cuban community in Miami.
Miami's Crucial Role
"From Miami, coffee, seasonings, solar panels, and more are sent to Cuba. Cuba's survival hinges on Miami," the analyst emphasized.
He described a daily flow of goods, including television sets, food, modern cars, and other parcels, even through companies listed under U.S. sanctions.
Cortés identifies a structural contradiction that remains untouched in Washington: the Cuban-American lobby.
"You can't touch Miami because that's where the Cuban lobby vote resides, the most powerful in the U.S., alongside the Israeli lobby," he pointed out.
The Influence of the Cuban-American Lobby
The paradox, as per the analyst, is striking: Cubans represent merely 0.69% of Miami's population, a figure he describes as "a drop in the ocean." Yet, this small group boasts between four and six congress members, one or two senators, and even a Cuban mayor in New Jersey.
"It's a lobby powerful enough to influence U.S. politics and turn Cuba into domestic policy," Cortés explained, highlighting why no administration has dared to sever this flow.
The Duality of Cuban Exile
The analyst also highlights a duality defining the exile community.
"You can't alienate Miami voters because they want—67% believe the U.S. should intervene in Cuba—but they also want to keep sending daily support to their families back home," he noted.
However, remittances from the U.S. to Cuba are estimated at $3 billion annually, becoming the island's only stable source of income.
Following Orbit S.A.'s inclusion on the restricted entities list in February 2025, remittances have been channeled through informal routes, with commissions reaching 40% for every $100 sent.
Cortés also notes that the regime is well-versed in this game of pressures and consistently responds with the same tactic: "Stretching the line to buy time." He adds that Trump's executive order confirms maximum pressure, but history carries more weight.
"No U.S. president since Kennedy has failed to negotiate successfully on various issues with the Cuban government," he asserted.
The Economic Impact of Miami on Cuba
What role does Miami play in supporting the Cuban regime?
Miami is considered the economic lifeline for the Cuban regime, supplying daily necessities and goods that help sustain the island's economy.
How significant are remittances from the U.S. to Cuba?
Remittances from the U.S. to Cuba are estimated at $3 billion annually, serving as the only stable source of income for the island.
Why is the Cuban-American lobby considered powerful?
Despite being a small percentage of the population, the Cuban-American lobby wields significant political influence, affecting U.S. policies towards Cuba.