Political analyst Rubén Cortés has sparked a heated debate with his theory that Iran may have smuggled weapons into Cuba via Venezuela. This uncertainty, he suggests, might be the reason why the United States has yet to carry out a military intervention on the island.
Cortés shared his hypothesis during an interview on CiberCuba, hosted by Tania Costa, amid the backdrop of Trump's new sanctions and his hints at possible military action against the Cuban regime.
"What did Iran do in Cuba? We don't know what they brought into Cuba through Venezuela. We simply don't know what's really in Cuba," Cortés stated, acknowledging the speculative nature of his claim.
The Uncertainty of Military Intervention
The analyst was clear about the implications of this uncertainty: "Perhaps they haven't invaded Cuba because of this. Maybe it's not as straightforward as it seems. There could be weapons. We just don't know."
To support his argument, Cortés recalled the 2013 incident when the North Korean ship Chong Chon Gang was intercepted in Panama, carrying Cuban weapons hidden beneath 220,000 sacks of sugar, including two MiG-21 aircraft, anti-aircraft batteries, and disassembled rockets.
Cuba admitted to owning the cargo but described it as "obsolete" weaponry headed to North Korea for repairs.
Historical Context and Public Perception
Cortés also referenced the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis as a historical precedent: "People thought the same back in '62 during the October crisis, and there were missiles in San Cristóbal, right near my home by the river."
Having lived near San Cristóbal in Pinar del Río, Cortés used this memory to argue that "realpolitik follows one path while street politics follow another."
He criticized the casualness with which military capabilities are discussed on social media: "We all have an opinion, and we post whatever comes to mind on our phones while in the bathroom or waiting for the bus."
The analyst questioned the images of military readiness featuring ox carts towing cannons: "That's part of a show, you know? It's meant to portray a brave populace," warning that this public image doesn't necessarily reflect the actual capabilities of the armed forces on the ground.
Tensions Between Washington and Havana
The backdrop for these statements is the rising tension between Washington and Havana. On May 1, Trump signed a new executive order expanding sanctions against Cuba and, during a private dinner in West Palm Beach, threatened to deploy the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier 100 yards off the Cuban coast upon its return from Iran. Days later, Díaz-Canel warned of an "imminent military aggression" from the U.S., invoking the "War of All the People" doctrine.
Cortés used a vivid analogy to describe the accumulating pressure from Washington: "The United States continues to apply pressure, little by little, like a swarm of mosquitoes pestering a donkey. It doesn't kill the donkey but makes its life unbearable."
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez also responded to Trump's threats, rejecting any possibility of surrender, while opposition leader José Daniel Ferrer claimed that the regime will eventually cede power under pressure.
The Iran-Venezuela-Cuba Nexus
The Iran-Venezuela-Cuba alliance is a precedent that reinforces Cortés' concerns: Iran has transferred drone technology, anti-ship missiles, and military capabilities to Venezuela, historically serving as a channel to Cuba. Analysts note that rebuilding U.S. military stockpiles after operations in Iran could take months or years, adding complexity to any potential military action scenario in the Caribbean.
Cortés concluded his analysis with a statement encapsulating his view of the current situation: "Cuba is trying to withstand in a new environment. No one is aiding them."
Frequently Asked Questions About Iran's Presence in Cuba
Why might the United States hesitate to intervene in Cuba militarily?
According to analyst Rubén Cortés, the uncertainty surrounding potential Iranian military equipment in Cuba could be a reason for the U.S. hesitation, as it complicates the strategic landscape.
What historical events are referenced to support concerns about military capabilities in Cuba?
The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and the 2013 interception of a North Korean ship carrying Cuban weapons are cited as precedents highlighting the potential for concealed military assets in Cuba.