The Cuban political analyst and journalist, Camilo Loret de Mola, asserts that despite his rare public appearances and silence, Raúl Castro remains the true power behind Cuba's regime. According to Loret de Mola, any strategic decision made within the leadership inevitably involves Castro's influence.
In a conversation with CiberCuba, Loret de Mola emphatically stated, "Make no mistake, Raúl Castro is the gatekeeper for every decision, determining the roles of the regime’s prominent figures."
The Urgency of Decision-Making
Former attorney for Duque Hernández, Loret de Mola, highlights the clear message from Secretary of State Marco Rubio: the regime must act swiftly to avoid reaching a dead end, as there is no room for the habitual procrastination that has characterized Havana's past responses.
The analyst detailed that the Cuban institutional framework, though portrayed as collective, ultimately follows the guidance of the elder statesman. His limited visibility is not indicative of diminished authority but rather a strategic protective measure.
Loret de Mola commented, "It's not that Raúl doesn't want to speak; rather, they are shielding him, keeping him out of sight to prevent any risks similar to those faced by Nicolás Maduro. They fear his exposure could lead to vulnerability."
Strategic Role Assignments
According to Loret de Mola, Castro's pragmatic approach defines the roles within the regime, prioritizing survival and adjusting positions as necessary, even if it means sacrificing key figures like Miguel Díaz-Canel.
"Currently, Díaz-Canel is the one being sacrificed, maintaining an aggressive rhetoric aimed not at Washington, but the Cuban people. It's a message that they remain as defiant as ever," Loret de Mola explained.
This perspective aligns with dissident José Daniel Ferrer's view that Díaz-Canel is expendable, and Raúl Castro has not truly stepped away from power.
External Pressures and Strategic Responses
Simultaneously, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has intensified pressure on Havana through a series of calculated steps. Initially demanding the release of political prisoners, he later addressed the issue of property confiscations since 1959. On Monday, he accused Cuba of hosting Chinese and Russian intelligence bases, framing the matter as a national security threat to the United States.
Loret de Mola interprets this as a deliberate tightening of constraints around the regime, touching on social, economic, and international security issues to prevent negotiation delays, a tactic in which Cubans are well-versed.
China dismissed Rubio's allegations on Wednesday, labeling them as "fabricated excuses," while the Cuban regime continues to push its narrative of resistance.
Castro's real control extends through GAESA, the military-business conglomerate that reportedly handles around $18 billion in key sectors, operating without civil oversight.
Understanding the Cuban Political Landscape
What role does Raúl Castro play in the Cuban regime?
Raúl Castro is considered the ultimate authority behind the scenes in Cuba, influencing all major strategic decisions despite his low public profile.
Why is Miguel Díaz-Canel seen as a sacrificial figure?
Analysts believe Díaz-Canel's aggressive rhetoric serves to maintain the regime's image of strength, making him expendable in the larger strategy dictated by Raúl Castro.
How has Marco Rubio escalated pressure on Cuba?
Marco Rubio has increased pressure by addressing political prisoners, historical property confiscations, and accusing Cuba of hosting foreign intelligence bases, framing these issues as national security threats.