Cuba's Economic Challenges: GDP Predicted to Plummet by 6.5% in 2026

According to the latest forecasts from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Cuba ranks last among 27 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in terms of macroeconomic management. Economist Elías Amor highlights that Cuba's GDP is expected to drop by 6.5% this year, marking the most significant decline in the region.

"In 2026, the Cuban economy will experience a 6.5% decrease in its gross domestic product. In real terms, it means the physical production of goods and services is collapsing," warns Amor. "We are no longer discussing stagnation; we are talking about a recession."

This downturn is not an isolated event. From 2020 to 2024, Cuba's economy shrank by a cumulative 11%; another 3.8% decline was recorded in 2025. If the 2026 projections hold, the total contraction since 2020 will nearly reach 26% of the GDP.

The Lingering Economic Crisis

"I often say it's a case of 'when it rains, it pours,'" says the economist, emphasizing that the ongoing declines make the current crisis comparable to the Special Period, with a crucial difference: the previous contraction was short-lived, while this one drags on for six consecutive years over an already weakened economy.

During 2025-2026, Cuba will suffer a GDP decline of 10.3%, more than double that of Haiti, the second worst-performing economy in the region, which will only fall by 4.1%. "Not only does Cuba have a lower GDP per capita than Haiti, but it also leads the region in GDP decline," Amor notes.

Factors Behind the Economic Collapse

Amor identifies three structural factors contributing to the downturn. The first is the economic model: "The Marxist-Leninist model enshrined in the 2019 Constitution has reached its end and no longer provides solutions to the significant economic challenges of the 21st century."

The second factor is the cessation of Venezuelan oil supplies, which began to deteriorate in 2024, turned into "absolute chaos" in 2025, and is virtually nonexistent in 2026. "In Cuba, they spent 20 years investing in hotel construction rather than in energy infrastructure, which is critical," Amor criticizes, adding that "Chinese solar panels do not solve Cuba's energy problems."

The third factor is the demographic crisis. "An economy with a stagnant and aging population is doomed to stagnation and recession, and this is already happening in Cuba at an alarming rate," the economist warns. Over 250,000 Cubans emigrated in 2024, primarily young working-age individuals, exacerbating the aging workforce.

Tourism: A Reflection, Not the Cause

Amor is clear about tourism's role: it is a consequence, not the cause, of the economic decline. "Tourism is an effect. If the economy is not doing well, then tourism, logically, cannot thrive."

The economist also criticizes the regime's response to these findings: the official newspaper Granma dedicated only half a page to the ECLAC report without mentioning Cuba's specific results. "The authorities chose to discuss the situation in Latin America rather than address Cuba's issues. I believe this is a grave irresponsibility," Amor concludes.

The Economist Intelligence Unit takes an even more pessimistic view, predicting a GDP decline of up to 7.2% for Cuba in 2026, further worsening a situation where the average Cuban salary in 2025 was merely 6,930 pesos, equivalent to about $15 per month.