Economist Elías Amor has issued a stark warning that 2026 could bring an "absolutely devastating" economic collapse for Cuba, suggesting that the regime might have no choice but to relinquish power. This prediction stems from his recent analysis of CEPAL's projections for Cuba's economic future.
When asked by a viewer on CiberCuba about the regime's longevity, Amor did not mince words. "Right now, the regime should be deeply worried about what's on the horizon. Although they scraped through 2025, what awaits them in 2026 is a truly devastating downfall," Amor declared.
Amor emphasized that the regime's primary issue isn't just the scale of the economic downturn, but its inability to address it. "The real problem is that they lack the tools and the expertise to tackle this economic crisis," he noted.
This lack of capability, according to Amor, might pave the way for a peaceful transition. "It's very likely that they might step aside. I believe the best solution for Cuba's transition is not violence, but rather an acknowledgment that they cannot climb out of this hole," Amor suggested.
The economist argues that the regime might choose to step down rather than face an uncontrollable social uprising. "To prevent massive social protests and an uncontrollable crisis, they might step aside and let others come in to fix the economy," he explained.
His conclusion was unequivocal: "The economic indicators strongly suggest that they should step down."
This analysis is underpinned by CEPAL data placing Cuba at the bottom of a list of 27 Latin American and Caribbean countries in terms of macroeconomic management. Cuba is facing a projected GDP contraction of 6.5% in 2026, worse than even Haiti's -4%.
Coupled with a 3.8% decline in 2025 and an 11% cumulative contraction from 2020 to 2024, the Cuban economy could shrink by nearly 26% since the pandemic began, reminiscent of the Special Period but over an extended timeline.
The Economist Intelligence Unit goes even further, forecasting a 7.2% GDP drop for Cuba in 2026, marking a cumulative decline of 23% since 2019.
During the same discussion, a New Jersey listener, Manuel, inquired whether GAESA—the military conglomerate controlling 30-40% of the Cuban economy—resembles Putin's oligarchs. Amor declined to answer, stating, "I can't respond because I've never seen GAESA's financial statements or records."
However, he dismissed comparisons with post-Soviet conglomerates, arguing they aren't equivalent and emphasizing his commitment to professional accuracy.
This potential transition scenario unfolds as Cuba experiences ongoing street protests since March in several provinces, fueled by daily power outages exceeding 20 hours and the breakdown of critical electrical infrastructure. Protesters chant slogans like "Down with the revolution!" and "This is over!"
Amor's warnings are not new; he has previously predicted the regime's downfall. His current projections align with international organizations describing Díaz-Canel clinging to power as Cuba sinks further into crisis.
Cuba's Economic Future and Regime's Viability
What is the economist's prediction for Cuba's economy in 2026?
Economist Elías Amor predicts an "absolutely devastating" economic collapse in Cuba for 2026, suggesting the regime might have to step down.
How does the Economist Intelligence Unit view Cuba's economic outlook?
The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts a 7.2% GDP decline for Cuba in 2026, which would result in a cumulative contraction of 23% since 2019.
What are the potential consequences of the regime's inability to manage the economic crisis?
The regime's inability to manage the economic crisis could lead to a peaceful transition, as they may choose to step aside to prevent uncontrollable social unrest.