The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has projected that Venezuela will experience a 6.5% growth in 2026, positioning it as the fastest-growing economy in South America and the second in the entire region, according to the United Nations body's updated projections released this Monday.
In South America, Venezuela is set to lead with this 6.5% growth in 2026, followed by Paraguay at 4.5%, Argentina at 3.3%, and Peru at 3.2%. On a regional scale, only Guyana surpasses Venezuela, with a projected expansion of 16.3% driven by its booming oil sector.
This figure starkly contrasts with the average growth for Latin America and the Caribbean, which ECLAC estimates will be 2.2% for 2026, a slight downward adjustment from the 2.3% predicted in December 2025. "Most economies in the region will show less economic dynamism in 2026 compared to 2025," noted the organization.
In 2025, Venezuela had already shown an 8.9% growth according to ECLAC, accumulating nearly 20 consecutive quarters of expansion following an economic collapse between 2014 and 2021 that reduced its GDP by more than 80%.
A significant turning point occurred with the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026. Under the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez, Washington rolled out a managed plan for the sale of Venezuelan oil and gradually lifted sanctions. Rubio outlined a three-stage plan for Venezuela, focusing on revitalizing the energy sector as the central axis.
Chevron tripled its Venezuelan crude exports, increasing from 100,000 barrels per day in December 2025 to 300,000 by March 2026, as oil companies are once again investing in Venezuela within a context of regulatory openness. In January 2026, the country also passed a reform to the Hydrocarbons Law to attract foreign investment.
However, the recovery is built on shaky grounds. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) forecasts an inflation rate of 271.6% for Venezuela in 2026, following the 475.3% recorded in 2025, with poverty affecting over 70% of the population. Analysts agree that a portion of the growth is a rebound effect following the prior collapse.
On the opposite end of the regional spectrum is Cuba, facing the worst projection in Latin America with a contraction of -6.5% for 2026, after a -3.8% decline in 2025. ECLAC had already highlighted the severity of Cuba's economic situation in previous forecasts, with Cuba and Haiti being the only countries in the region experiencing a sustained drop in GDP.
The cumulative contraction of the Cuban economy since 2019 could exceed 23% if the 2026 projection holds, a figure described by economist Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo as "a brutality in seven years."
Understanding Venezuela's Economic Growth and Challenges
What is the projected economic growth for Venezuela in 2026?
ECLAC projects that Venezuela will grow by 6.5% in 2026, making it the fastest-growing economy in South America.
What factors are contributing to Venezuela's economic expansion?
The managed sale of Venezuelan oil, the lifting of sanctions, and reforms to attract foreign investment in the energy sector are key factors.
What challenges does Venezuela face despite its growth?
Venezuela struggles with high inflation, projected at 271.6% for 2026, and significant poverty levels, affecting over 70% of the population.
How is Cuba's economic outlook different from Venezuela's?
Cuba is facing a projected economic contraction of -6.5% in 2026, contrasting sharply with Venezuela's growth, with sustained GDP decline since 2019.