On Monday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted Cuba's distinct national security threat, contrasting it with conflicts in the Middle East or Asia. He stressed this point during an interview with Fox News, recorded on Sunday at the State Department, due to Cuba's geographical closeness to the United States.
"Cuba differs from any situation in the Middle East or Asia. It’s just 90 miles from Key West, slightly over a hundred miles from Mar-a-Lago. Its proximity matters because it’s within our hemisphere. It’s as close as it gets. That’s why it’s significant to us," Rubio told journalist Trey Yingst.
Rubio described Cuba as a nation embodying both a failed state with no real economy and a host to strategic adversaries, where its people live under severe poverty and lack political freedoms.
"China, Russia, and others frequently use Cuba for their purposes, merely 90 miles from our shores," he pointed out.
Geopolitical Concerns and Strategic Installations
This geopolitical concern is grounded in reality. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has identified at least 12 Chinese signal intelligence facilities in Cuba, located in Bejucal, El Salao, Calabazar, and El Wajay, with confirmed expansions for 2024 and 2025. The site at El Salao, near Santiago de Cuba, is just 70 miles from the Guantanamo Naval Base.
In February 2026, RC-135V Rivet Joint spy planes from the U.S. Air Force patrolled the entire Cuban coastline to monitor these foreign surveillance systems on the island.
Cuba's Future: Collapse or Reform
Rubio was clear in outlining Cuba's only two possible futures: total collapse or improvement through serious economic reforms.
Regarding the first scenario, he warned that "a humanitarian collapse just 90 miles from our shores of a country with 11 or 12 million people is not good for the United States."
For the second scenario, Rubio dismissed the current regime: economic reforms are impossible with the present leaders, whom he labeled "economically incompetent" and accused of being solely focused on maintaining control.
"They have rolled out the welcome mat for U.S. adversaries to operate on Cuban soil against national interests with impunity," Rubio stated, delivering a stern warning to Havana.
"We will not allow any foreign military, intelligence, or security apparatus to operate with impunity 90 miles off the U.S. coast. This will not happen under President Trump," the U.S. diplomat asserted.
Intensified Pressure Under Trump's Administration
These statements reflect a maximum pressure policy that the Trump administration has ramped up since January.
On January 29, 2026, Trump signed an executive order declaring Cuba a national security threat and imposing tariffs on countries supplying it with oil. By March, the administration had enacted over 240 sanctions against the island.
In late March, Rubio expressed hope for an imminent collapse of the Cuban regime and anticipated upcoming changes in Washington's policy. He was equally forthright in other statements: "the people in charge need to be changed," he said, linking economic reforms to a shift in the political system.
The economic backdrop supports this assessment: Cuba's GDP plummeted over 11% between 2019 and 2024, the population decreased from 11 million to 8.5 million between 2022 and 2024 due to massive exodus, and Prisoners Defenders reported a historic high of 1,250 political prisoners by the end of March 2026.
"The reason Cuba’s economy has been collapsing for so long is that Marxism generally doesn’t work, and it certainly doesn’t work when those trying to practice it are also incompetent and know nothing of economics. All they care about is control," Rubio concluded.
Key Questions on U.S.-Cuba Relations
Why does Marco Rubio consider Cuba a unique threat to the United States?
Marco Rubio views Cuba as a unique threat due to its close proximity to the United States and its role as a base for strategic adversaries like China and Russia.
What are the potential scenarios for Cuba's future, according to Marco Rubio?
Marco Rubio outlines two potential scenarios for Cuba: a complete collapse or improvement through significant economic reforms. However, he believes reforms are impossible under the current regime.