A recent report from the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) draws a direct link between the tightening of U.S. sanctions on Cuba since 2017 and a sharp increase in infant mortality on the island. The rate jumped from 4.0 per 1,000 live births in 2018 to 9.9 in 2025, reflecting a staggering 148% rise.
The study, conducted by Alexander Main, Joe Sammut, Mark Weisbrot, and Guillaume Long, suggests that if the 2018 rate had been maintained, the lives of approximately 1,800 babies could have been spared.
Regional Context and Historical Comparisons
Contrary to regional trends, Cuba once boasted one of the lowest infant mortality rates in the Western Hemisphere, surpassing even the United States. In 2015, the U.S. recorded 5.8 deaths per 1,000 live births compared to Cuba's 4.3.
The report highlights the exacerbation of Cuba's economic and humanitarian crisis due to the Trump administration's initial tightening of the embargo, the Biden administration's continuation of these policies, and further sanctions in Trump's second term, including a fuel blockade. These actions are cited as the primary drivers of what is widely considered the worst crisis in modern Cuban history.
Impact of U.S. Policies
Among the most damaging policies are the 2017 Cuban Restricted Entities List, reducing the U.S. content threshold in exports from 25% to 10% in October 2019, restrictions on tourism and cruises, Cuba's re-designation as a state sponsor of terrorism in January 2021, and successive limitations on family remittances.
The economic repercussions are substantial: tourism revenue plummeted by 59%, from $3.2 billion in 2017 to $1.3 billion in 2024; remittances decreased by 42%, from $4 billion in 2018 to $2.3 billion in 2024; and goods imports shrank by 30%.
Healthcare System in Crisis
CEPR researchers visiting Cuban healthcare facilities in 2024 discovered that Cuban medical importers could no longer afford essential supplies like syringes, inhalers, or saline, nor equipment like imaging systems and ultrasounds at reasonable prices.
Furthermore, the internal collapse of the Cuban healthcare system is evident: over 12,000 doctors, 7,414 nurses, and 3,000 dentists emigrated between 2021 and 2022, driven by salaries averaging $16 per month.
Since January 2026, the de facto embargo on Venezuelan oil has worsened conditions. NBC reported in March that 300 ambulances were out of service due to lack of fuel or parts, with only 25 electric ambulances available across the island, while power outages disrupted neonatal incubators and ventilators.
Rising Infant Mortality Rates
Infant mortality in Cuba has been steadily increasing over recent years. By January 2026, Havana recorded a rate of 14 deaths per 1,000 live births, the highest in over two decades.
The debate intensifies regarding the embargo's role versus the regime's internal policies. A Cuban-American scholar criticized a New York Times article for attributing the collapse almost solely to the fuel blockade, overlooking decades of structural decay caused by the dictatorship.
Cuban Health Minister admitted in July 2025 to the healthcare system's collapse, and by February 2026 acknowledged that only 30% of essential medicines were available.
The CEPR concludes that it is "highly probable that Cuba's infant mortality rate has surged significantly since December 2025," when it had already reached 9.9 per 1,000 live births, and cautions that other key indicators like life expectancy and maternal mortality have also worsened since the start of this year.
Understanding the Impact of Sanctions on Cuba
How have U.S. sanctions affected Cuba's healthcare system?
U.S. sanctions have severely impacted Cuba's ability to procure medical supplies and equipment, leading to shortages of essential items like syringes and imaging systems. The economic pressure has exacerbated the healthcare system's collapse.
What are the economic effects of the embargo on Cuba?
The embargo has led to a significant decline in tourism revenue, remittances, and imports, contributing to Cuba's economic crisis. Tourism revenue fell by 59% and remittances by 42% between 2017 and 2024.
Why is infant mortality rising in Cuba?
Infant mortality in Cuba is rising largely due to the compounded effects of tightened U.S. sanctions, which have strained the healthcare system and economy, limiting access to essential medical care.