Alina López: Independent Survey and Regime's Backlash Highlight Cuban Totalitarianism's Collapse

Historian and university professor Alina Bárbara López Hernández took to Facebook this Sunday to defend the legitimacy of a survey launched by a coalition of over 20 independent Cuban media outlets, content creators, and activists. She also issued a strong response to the regime's attacks on this initiative.

The survey titled “Cuba: Political and Social Perspectives,” backed by outlets such as El Toque, Árbol Invertido, 14yMedio, Alas Tensas, Rialta, and Café Fuerte, faced an immediate block by the Cuban regime on its launch day. Despite this, by Sunday at 4:00 p.m., over 22,400 Cubans had participated, with 58 percent responding from within the country, many utilizing virtual private networks.

The findings are damning for the government: 94% of respondents expressed significant dissatisfaction with the current system on the island, and 82.3% identified “lack of civil and political freedoms” as Cuba's foremost issue.

Challenging the State's Monopoly on Public Opinion

For López, the regime's hostile reaction underscores her main thesis: “For those skeptical about the bankruptcy of Cuban totalitarianism, this is a clear and fresh example of the breakdown of the state’s monopoly over communications and public opinion, which it held for decades.”

The professor from Matanzas contextualizes her argument by emphasizing that in Cuba, this democratic tool was usurped by the single-party system post-1959: “The study of political opinions has been the exclusive domain of the Population Opinion Offices, attached to the provincial PCC directorates. The Party acts as both judge and participant in the process, casting doubt on the reliability of the results, which are generally not publicly disseminated.”

Calls for Genuine Public Opinion Research

López’s criticism goes further: these offices rely not on scientific questionnaires but on informants gathering remarks at bus stops or in lines. “Cuban social scientists are barred from conducting opinion studies on the government and its policies. Even to conduct a mass survey on leisure time or reading habits, prior authorization is required,” she warned.

Illustrating this control, López recounts the story of a University of Matanzas professor whose doctoral thesis on public participation was delayed for three months by the National Assembly of People's Power, despite following all institutional protocols.

The academic advocates for changing this situation: “We need to reclaim the use of anonymous surveys. We must have access to genuine opinions; mobilizing chants, slogans, public signature collections, and collective declarations aren’t enough.” She adds, “All this shows us that in Cuba, knowing what people think about the government was exclusively the state’s domain... until independent media and social networks began functioning as a social thermometer.”

Survey Findings and Broader Implications

A member of the Academy of History of Cuba, López acknowledges the survey's room for improvement—suggesting some items should have been open-ended—but defends its historical significance. The survey's numbers are overwhelming: 79.7% favor transitioning to a liberal democracy and market economy, while only 0.1% support maintaining the current political model. President Miguel Díaz-Canel receives an average rating of 1.1 out of five, indicating that the vast majority assign him the lowest score.

The analysis comes just a week after López was detained for nearly ten hours by the Revolutionary National Police in Playa, Matanzas, accused of violating a house arrest measure. Expelled from the Cuban Union of Writers and Artists for her civic stance, she has staged peaceful protests on the 18th of each month at Matanzas's Liberty Park since March 2023.

“The real challenge is ensuring representativeness, as not everyone in Cuba has internet access,” López concludes, pointing to the path ahead to ensure these tools more accurately reflect the voice of the entire Cuban populace.